US-Iran war impact: India’s crude imports from Russia near all-time high

Russian crude has emerged arsenic a large subordinate amid the US-Iran warfare - planetary crude lipid proviso is severely affected via the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East countries are uncovering it hard to export lipid and planetary crude lipid prices person risen dramatically.

The concern has had large implications for India - a state that imports astir 90% of its crude oil.There was a clip aft the Russia-Ukraine warfare began successful 2022 that Russia had begun to lend astir 35-40% of India’s crude lipid imports. Come aboriginal 2026, sanctions forced India’s procurement of Russian crude to drop. But March 2026 presents a precise antithetic picture.The inflows of Russian crude oil person risen sharply since the US-Iran warfare began and imports via the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted. In fact, crude imports from Russia are present nearing beingness monthly highs!The Donald Trump medication has fixed a 30-day waiver for acquisition of Russian crude to support planetary lipid prices stable.

It’s important to enactment that India has ne'er stopped buying crude lipid from Russia, nevertheless imports dropped drastically aft sanctions connected Russian lipid majors.

“We root crude from wherever supplies are available, competitively priced and deliverable, and we volition proceed to bash so,” a authorities root told TOI earlier this month. The root besides said that the declaration of a 30-day waiver by the US appears to beryllium for the depletion of their home audience.

When India Became A Big Importer of Russian Oil

For decades, India has chiefly imported crude lipid from the Middle East, particularly from countries similar Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The determination has been driven by proximity, long‑term contracts and unchangeable shipping routes.After the Russia–Ukraine warfare began successful 2022, Western sanctions pushed Russian lipid retired of European markets. This is erstwhile India started importing ample volumes of Russian crude - and a large origin driving this determination was the availability of crude that suited Indian refineries astatine specified steep discounts.This helped India trim its lipid import costs and diversify its proviso network. However, successful precocious 2025 and aboriginal 2026, India scaled backmost Russian lipid purchases amid US commercialized negotiations and unit linked to tariffs and sanctions compliance. In August 2025, the Donald Trump medication imposed a 25% punishment tariff connected India for its crude lipid buys from Russia. The US called these imports an indirect financing of the warfare against Ukraine.

Within months 2 Russian crude lipid majors, Lukoil and Rosneft, were sanctioned making it hard for Indian refiners to bargain Russian crude, starring to a gradual diminution successful imports. But that has changed now.

The Re-emergence Of Russian Oil

An investigation by Kpler, a planetary real-time information and analytics supplier suggests that India has truthful acold purchased astir 45–50 cardinal barrels of Russian crude since the commencement of the Middle East conflict. The fig whitethorn adjacent beryllium higher, fixed that April figures are not confirmed arsenic yet.

The trendline suggests March procurement is apt to scope astir 1.8–2.0 Mbd, which would marque it 1 of the strongest months for Russian crude intake since India began ramping up purchases aft the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war. This compares with a pre-conflict tally complaint person to astir 1.0 Mbd, Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling astatine Kpler tells TOI.Historically, India’s highest monthly purchases of Russian crude person been astir 2.0-2.1 Mbd since the Russia-Ukraine warfare began successful 2022.Hence, the biggest takeaway is that the existent spurt successful purchases of Russian crude lipid is present nearing highest monthly trends seen earlier India started dialling down connected Moscow’s crude.

For Sumit Ritolia, what stands retired is the velocity of the rebound: arsenic Middle Eastern supplies via Hormuz dried up, Indian refiners were capable to assistance Russian purchases by adjacent to astir 0.8–1.0 Mbd, helping cushion the disruption without materially affecting refinery runs truthful far.Sourav Mitra, Partner – Oil & Gas astatine Grant Thornton Bharat points retired that India bought the astir Russian crude successful a azygous period successful May 2023, erstwhile imports reached astir 66 cardinal barrels, 2.1 cardinal bpd. “The caller emergence successful March 2026 is expected to beryllium arsenic high, astatine astir 60 cardinal barrels. This implies that the ongoing struggle successful West Asia has pushed India’s acquisition of Russian crude lipid person to its erstwhile all-time high,” Mitra tells TOI.

India vs China: The Russian Crude Factor

Experts enactment that since China has much reserves, it is structurally little exposed to the Strait of Hormuz lipid proviso shock.Kpler information and investigation suggests that compared with China, India is presently buying akin to somewhat higher implicit volumes of Russian crude successful March, depending connected the month, but Russia’s relation successful India’s crude slate has go overmuch much captious successful the existent environment. China continues to instrumentality important Russian volumes arsenic well, supported by some seaborne crude and pipeline imports, portion India’s caller summation has been much straight linked to replacing mislaid Middle Eastern barrels. “In different words, India and China stay the larger structural buyers of Russian crude overall, but India’s existent surge is much pronounced from a substitution and energy-security standpoint,” says Sumit Ritolia.India usually imports 5-5.5 cardinal bpd of crude lipid vis-à-vis China’s import of astir 11 cardinal bpd.Sourav Mitra says that successful 2025, China ramped up crude lipid imports to 11.5 cardinal bpd to augment its stockpiles.

Russia accounted for 18% of full Chinese crude lipid imports successful 2025. China’s import of Russian seaborne crude lipid surged to astir 2 cardinal bpd successful February arsenic India scaled backmost the import of Russian Urals successful February. In the archetypal 2 months of 2026 alone, Russia’s shipments of crude to China roseate astir 40 % y-o-y.“Since lipid prices are precocious and China has capable inventory, it’s apt to chopped its lipid purchases. Shifting of sanctions policies and rising request from different countries could mean Russia’s shipments to China successful the coming months.

However, Russian lipid whitethorn stay 1 of China’s preferred choices owed to the stableness and standard it provides successful uncertain times,” helium says.

India’s Energy Security & Resilience

India remains structurally exposed to disruptions successful the Strait of Hormuz, having historically sourced astir 50% of its crude imports via the route. The ongoing struggle has truthful impacted some crude and LPG flows into the country. “Since the US eased restrictions connected incremental purchases of Russian crude, Indian refiners person importantly ramped up intake.

Pre-conflict, India was importing astir 2.6-2.7 Mbd of Middle Eastern crude which was mostly via Hormuz and astir 1.0 Mbd of Russian crude. Post-conflict, the flows via Hormuz person sharply declined, but Russian imports person accrued to astir 1.9–2.0 Mbd, efficaciously offsetting a ample information of the disruption,” says Sumit Ritolia.Also, arsenic Kpler notes, Middle Eastern producers are partially rerouting supplies via pipelines that bypass Hormuz.

The astir notable is Saudi Arabia’s East-West (Yanbu) pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah pipeline. These flows person provided incremental relief, allowing India to proceed sourcing immoderate volumes from the portion contempt maritime constraints.

Overall, India’s full crude imports are presently down by astir 800 kbd arsenic of day compared to January oregon February 2026 levels. However, according to Kpler this has not yet materially impacted refinery runs, which stay broadly stable.

Refiners person drawn down commercialized inventories (excluding strategical petroleum reserves) to prolong throughput, portion merchandise exports proceed to way adjacent humanities norms. What seems to beryllium moving successful India’s favour is its diversified crude import basket. As PM Narendra Modi said successful Parliament: In the past 11 years the fig of countries from which India gets lipid has accrued from 27 to implicit 40."Despite the concern astatine the Strait of Hormuz, India is contiguous receiving much crude lipid from its 41-plus suppliers crossed the satellite than what was antecedently arriving done the Straits.

High volumes disposable successful planetary markets — particularly from the occidental hemisphere — person much than compensated for immoderate disruption. Every Indian refinery is moving astatine implicit 100% utilisation. Crude lipid supplies for adjacent 60 days person already been tied up by Indian Oil companies.

There is NO proviso gap," the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas has clarified today.Experts enactment that the inclination of reduced Russian crude since precocious 2025 has reversed.“With shipping risks rising and Middle Eastern supplies becoming uncertain, Indian refiners person rapidly accrued Russian crude imports again to guarantee vigor information and uninterrupted refinery operations. The crude procurement is good diversified with supplies coming from US, Venezuela and West African countries,” says Sourav Mitra.Looking ahead, Russian crude is expected to stay the backbone of India’s import slate, with March apt marking 1 of the highest intake months since June 2025, Ritolia tells TOI.

This inclination is expected to proceed into April, helium says.The adept besides points to imaginable for opportunistic purchases of Iranian barrels, peculiarly cargoes that are already connected water, though nary important flows to India person been observed yet successful vas tracking data. Also, India is expected to commencement receiving Venezuelan barrels from April onwards, and that would assistance to apprehension immoderate of the crude proviso risk, helium adds.However, contempt resilience truthful far, immoderate moderation successful refinery throughput is emerging, with runs estimated to diminution by astir 5–8% going forward, with crude runs astir 5.2 to 5.3 cardinal b/d, notes the Kpler expert.“That said, home merchandise proviso remains good balanced, and India is comparatively amended positioned than different Asian exporters. With countries similar China and South Korea curbing exports, India could proceed to play a cardinal relation successful supplying refined products to East and Southeast Asia,” helium adds.To sum it up, experts are of the presumption that India has managed to cushion the interaction of Strait of Hormuz-linked lipid proviso disruptions for present by expanding Russian crude lipid imports.“While immoderate unit connected runs is expected, the strategy remains resilient, with nary contiguous hazard to home substance proviso and continued spot successful merchandise exports,” Ritolia concludes.