Trump wants India to stop buying Russian oil — but can it? Why crude imports can at best be reduced

Donald Trump has claimed assurance from PM Narendra Modi that India volition halt buying Russian crude oil. Russia maintains its presumption arsenic 1 of the world's superior crude lipid producers and exporters. While the Ministry of External Affairs has firmly denied cognition of a telephone connected this substance betwixt the 2 leaders, it is important to enactment that stopping Russian crude imports is easier said than done.This concern has emerged arsenic a cardinal constituent of diplomatic and commercialized disagreement betwixt India and the US. India faces 50% tariffs connected its exports to the US, 25% of which is simply a penal tariff for its imports of Russia’s crude.

The important dependence connected Russian oil, which presently constitutes implicit one-third of the full crude processed successful Indian refineries for producing fuels specified arsenic petrol and diesel, cannot beryllium terminated suddenly, according to a PTI analysis. The astir feasible enactment astatine contiguous would beryllium a gradual simplification successful imports. We instrumentality a look astatine India’s lipid trade, dependence connected Russian crude & alternatives to it:

Russian lipid deliveries successful aboriginal October reached 1.77 cardinal bpd.

Iraq secured the 2nd position, supplying astir 1.01 cardinal bpd, with Saudi Arabia pursuing astatine 8,30,000 bpd. The United States surpassed the UAE to go the 4th largest supplier, delivering 647,000 bpd. The UAE contributed 394,000 bpd.India's crude imports during September reached astir 4.7 cardinal barrels per day, showing an summation of 2,20,000 bpd compared to the erstwhile period whilst remaining changeless year-on-year.

Russia remained the main supplier, delivering astir 1.6 cardinal bpd, accounting for 34 per cent of full imports.According to preliminary information from planetary commercialized analytics steadfast Kpler quoted successful the PTI report, this measurement was astir 1,60,000 bpd little than the mean Russian imports during the archetypal 8 months of 2025.Also read: India’s Russian crude lipid commercialized rebound successful October aft erstwhile 4th dip; imports emergence to 1.8 cardinal bpd

Why India can’t abruptly halt Russian lipid imports

Stopping Russian crude lipid instantly is simply a adjacent intolerable scenario, says the PTI analysis.

Oil procurement operates connected a 4-6 week beforehand declaration basis, meaning existent deliveries were arranged successful aboriginal and mid-September.Contracts done November's extremity are already established. Consequently, if Trump's connection proves accurate, Indian refiners would cease caller contracts, resulting successful Russian deliveries perchance declining from precocious November.Based connected existing contracts, analysts bespeak that existent Russian import levels of 1.6-1.8 cardinal bpd look "more realistic" for the upcoming weeks.India's lipid infrastructure continues to trust heavy connected Russian crude. The important terms advantages marque it commercially advantageous for refiners to support these purchases. Though, notably these discounts person travel down now.The economical rationale remains sound. Despite reduced discounts compared to 2023, Russian lipid varieties, peculiarly Urals, proceed to connection Indian refiners competitory advantages done favourable landed costs and superior GPW borderline yields.Kpler's investigation contradicts Trump's assertion regarding India reducing Russian lipid imports, viewing it arsenic governmental rhetoric without authoritative backing from New Delhi. The information shows dependable flows and the reduced imports observed during July-September were chiefly attributed to seasonal attraction operations astatine PSU refineries alternatively than tariff-related concerns.Furthermore, the transportation contracts until aboriginal September were confirmed 6-10 weeks beforehand, indicating that July-September fluctuations were predominantly linked to refinery operational needs.

India’s openness to diversify & bargain US energy

Data from Kpler suggests India's imaginable US lipid imports person an precocious bounds of 400,000-500,000 barrels per day. This ceiling exists due to the fact that American crude grades contiguous logistical difficulties, fiscal constraints, and compatibility issues with Indian refineries, making a important displacement towards US lipid improbable.Indian refineries' efforts to grow their proviso sources continue, seeking economically viable shipments. Kpler statistic bespeak that India's US crude imports reached 310,000 barrels per time successful 2025, up from 199,000 barrels per time successful 2024, with projections showing a highest of astir 500,000 barrels per time (Expected successful October).

From a method perspective, Indian refineries tin relation without Russian supplies, though this would necessitate important economical and strategical adjustments, according to analysts.Russian crude provides superior distillate yields successful the refining process. A modulation distant from Russian supplies would effect successful decreased mediate distillate accumulation (diesel and pitchy fuel) whilst expanding residue output.Russian crude's precocious distillate output capableness aligns perfectly with India's blase refining systems. This has enabled authorities and backstage refiners to transcend mean capableness whilst maintaining profitable operations.A displacement distant from Russian lipid could outgo India an further $3-5 cardinal yearly successful import expenses (calculated astatine $5 per tube premium connected 1.6-1.8 cardinal bpd), the PTI study says,The fiscal interaction could escalate considerably if planetary prices increase, peculiarly successful a script wherever Russian crude exports diminution owed to insufficient Indian purchasing.Sourcing alternatives for 1.6-1.8 cardinal barrels per time of Russian crude would necessitate diversified determination sourcing.The Middle East presents the astir applicable alternative, with American WTI Midland grades perchance contributing 2,00,000-4,00,000 bpd.US crude grades, being lighter, nutrient little diesel, which disadvantages India's distillate-focused demand. Distance-related freight costs and logistics bounds scalability. West African and Latin American crude offers constricted potential.Also read: India cutting Russian lipid imports by 50%? White House makes large claim; refiners await clarityAnalysts suggest an optimal replacement strategy mightiness comprise 60-70 per cent Middle Eastern supplies, supplemented by American and African/Latin American crude arsenic tactical alternatives.Russia maintains its presumption arsenic a important lipid exporter, with its superior markets being China, India and Turkey. During September, Chinese purchases constituted 47 per cent of Russian crude exports, whilst India acquired 38 per cent, followed by Turkiye and the EU astatine 6 per cent each.Stopping of Russian lipid imports would compel India to question constricted alternate sources, perchance causing planetary crude prices to escalate to $100 per barrel, amidst expanding request and constrained supply.Industry experts bespeak that crude lipid resources are finite globally. The exclusion of a large supplier similar Russia would necessitate importers, peculiarly India, to root from different providers. This displacement successful request towards non-Russian lipid would effect successful terms increases, perchance triggering worldwide inflation.Russia's exports scope betwixt 4.3-4.8 cardinal bpd (from a full accumulation of 9.2 cardinal bpd), representing astir 5 per cent of planetary crude lipid supply.India has successfully controlled ostentation by maintaining dependable substance rates recently. The strategy progressive creating reserves done purchasing affordable Russian and different crude oils, enabling unchangeable retail pump rates during planetary terms surges, arsenic witnessed successful 2022.Whilst India's displacement towards Russian lipid ensured affordable vigor supplies, the Trump medication expressed disapproval regarding these purchases, suggesting that New Delhi benefited from discounted Russian lipid whilst exporting refined substance to assorted regions, including Europe.India's stance remains that its actions comply with planetary regulations, noting the lack of sanctions connected Russian crude purchases. The European Union has lone precocious prohibited importing substance derived from Russian crude. The US has not imposed restrictions connected purchasing Russian crude lipid oregon its refined products.Despite galore EU countries prohibiting Russian lipid imports, different nations indispensable adhere to an established terms headdress erstwhile purchasing Russian crude oil. Indian imports person remained wrong this prescribed terms cap.