Trump's claim on Russian crude oil: Will India stop buying it? Here's what's happening

Will India halt buying lipid from Russia? US President Donald Trump has claimed that PM Narendra Modi has assured him that India volition halt Russian crude. The Ministry of External Affairs has denied being alert of immoderate telephone betwixt the 2 leaders.The Trump medication has exerted unit connected India to trim Russian lipid imports, alleging that these purchases concern Moscow's subject operations successful Ukraine. The US authorities implemented a 25% supplementary tariff connected Indian exports to America arsenic a effect of Russian lipid acquisitions, though akin measures were not enforced against different purchasing nations. China continues to beryllium the largest procurer of Russian crude, but does not look immoderate tariffs from the US connected that account.Russia maintains its presumption arsenic India's superior lipid supplier, contributing 34% of incoming deliveries successful September, contempt a 10% simplification successful measurement during the archetypal 8 months of 2025, according to information from Kpler, a commodities and shipping markets monitoring firm.

The latest investigation from Kpler indicates India's crude imports successful September exceeded 4.5 cardinal barrels per time (bpd).

How has India reacted to Trump’s claim?

India has indicated that it continues to diversify its vigor procurement sources to code marketplace needs.

When questioned astir Trump's assertion regarding a Wednesday speech with Modi, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said helium had nary cognition of specified a discussion, adding that India's lipid procurement decisions are driven by the request to support Indian consumers amidst unstable vigor markets."Ensuring unchangeable vigor prices and secured supplies person been the duplicate goals of our vigor policy.

This includes broad-basing our vigor sourcing and diversifying arsenic due to conscionable marketplace conditions," Jaiswal said.Also Read | ‘We bash not interfere in…’: Moscow reacts to Trump’s assertion connected PM Modi stopping Russian lipid trade; says ‘our supplies precise beneficial for Indian economy’"As per my information, determination was nary telephone speech betwixt PM Modi and President Trump yesterday," helium said. The past telephone speech betwixt Modi and Trump was connected October 9, Jaiswal said.However, helium declined to straight code questions regarding Trump's assertion astir Modi's alleged assurance to halt purchasing Russian energy.

How Much Russian Oil Does India Buy Right Now?

Indian refiners procured Russian crude worthy $2.91 cardinal (₹25,597 crore) during September, ranking 2nd to China's $3.73 cardinal purchases, according to the latest Centre for Research connected Energy and Clean Air (CREA) data. India besides secured the 2nd presumption successful Russian ember and refined fuels acquisitions, with full fossil imports valued astatine $4.2 billion, whilst China led with $6.41 billion.In the hierarchy of Russian fossil substance purchasers, China maintained the apical position, with India, Türkiye, the EU and South Korea pursuing respectively.

China dominated the imports of Russian crude, LNG, and coal, whereas Türkiye led successful refined lipid products and pipeline state procurement.

However, it is important to enactment that Russian crude exports to India experienced a diminution of 9% successful September, reaching their lowest constituent since February, chiefly owed to state-run refiners reducing their purchases by 38% - the smallest measurement since May 2022.According to the latest Kpler study Russian lipid imports stood astatine astir 1.6 cardinal bpd, constituting 34% of India’s full crude imports.

India's wide crude imports successful October person remained accordant with projections astatine 1.6 cardinal bpd. The study indicates that Russian crude deliveries person decreased by 180,000 from the mean volumes imported during the archetypal 8 months of 2025.The diminution successful imports is attributed solely to marketplace conditions alternatively than US tariff threats oregon European disapproval regarding India's ongoing procurement of these lipid supplies.Industry analysts bespeak that declining lipid prices person reduced the Russian crude discount to astir $2 per barrel. This concern has created opportunities for Indian refineries, which person the method capableness to process divers crude varieties, starring them to root much lipid from West Asia, Africa and the United States. The monsoon-related alteration successful substance consumption, peculiarly diesel, which leads substance income successful India, has besides influenced this humble displacement from Russian crude, particularly considering the reduced terms advantages.

"We are buying crude arsenic per the economics. We are not making immoderate other effort for either expanding oregon decreasing Russian crude," IndianOil president Arvinder Singh Sahney had told TOI recently, suggesting that crude enactment is determined by terms considerations and merchandise output alignment with planned refinery output.Despite this reduction, Kpler indicates that Russian lipid volition proceed to beryllium 1 of the astir cost-effective options for Indian refiners, considering their important GPW (gross merchandise margin) and competitory pricing compared to alternatives, arsenic refineries summation accumulation to conscionable the October-December festive play substance requirements.

India’s US Energy Diversification Move

Even arsenic India procures a important magnitude of its crude from Russia, it has shown willingness to grow vigor ties with the US arsenic well.India has further purchasing capableness of $15 cardinal for US oil, according to a elder commerce ministry official's connection connected Wednesday, indicating New Delhi's willingness to accelerate commercialized negotiations towards an agreement.According to Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, vigor procurement from the US has shown an upward inclination implicit caller years.He said, "Right present we are astatine an mean of $12-$13 cardinal arsenic per FY25 figures and determination is headroom for $14-$15 billion" further capableness with existing refinery infrastructure.India’s imaginable determination to heighten vigor ties with the US could perchance trim its $42.7 cardinal commercialized surplus and code President Donald Trump's concerns. Indian officials are presently conducting meetings with US counterparts, aiming to finalise an statement by adjacent month, according to Bloomberg.New Delhi's strategical attack includes surplus simplification done accrued American goods procurement, enhanced Indian marketplace accessibility, and simplification of commercialized restrictions. The program encompasses astir $40 cardinal successful important purchases, including defence instrumentality and lipid from the US, to alteration the surplus, the study said.