'Surprise attack': Can Iran hit California with kamikaze drones?

An alert issued by the Federal Bureau of Investigation has raised concerns astir the anticipation of an Iranian drone onslaught targeting the US authorities of California. However, officials accent that the informing is based connected unverified quality and does not constituent to an imminent threat.The memo suggested that Iran could effort to motorboat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from a vas positioned disconnected the US seashore arsenic retaliation if the United States carried retired subject strikes connected Iran.The disclosure of the alert drew wide attraction earlier this week aft reports surfaced that the FBI had warned instrumentality enforcement agencies astir the anticipation of a seaborne “surprise attack.”According to the memo, the script progressive drones launched from a vessel determination disconnected the American coastline.

Authorities aboriginal clarified that the announcement was based connected earthy quality and was circulated retired of caution alternatively than grounds of an contiguous threat.The informing was archetypal reported by ABC News connected March 11. The FBI had earlier distributed the memo to members of a Joint Terrorism Task Force past month, earlier the latest escalation successful the Middle East conflict.The United States and Israel began carrying retired strikes connected Iran connected February 28, raising fears of imaginable retaliation.

What the FBI memo said

The memo released by the FBI states that the bureau had received quality suggesting Iran mightiness see launching a drone onslaught from a vas astatine sea.“We precocious acquired unverified accusation that arsenic of aboriginal February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to behaviour a astonishment onslaught utilizing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) from an unidentified vas disconnected the seashore of the United States homeland, specifically against unspecified targets successful California, successful the lawsuit the US conducted strikes against Iran.

We person nary further accusation connected the timing, method, target, oregon perpetrators of this alleged attack.

”The papers was marked “unclassified” but besides labelled arsenic “law enforcement sensitive.” It besides carried a wide informing that the accusation was preliminary.The memo states that, “NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO THE PUBLIC OR PRESS” and that “THIS MESSAGE CONTATINS [sic] RAW INFORMATON [sic] SUBJECT TO REVISION AND IS PROVIDED FOR YOUR SITUATIONAL AWARENESS ONLY.”Officials acquainted with the informing person repeatedly said that the accusation remains unverified.A California-based national instrumentality enforcement authoritative told CBS News that the informing was “not actionable.” Another authoritative said, “This is unverified. There has been nary accusation fixed connected the timing, source, method oregon people of immoderate specified attack... since then, we person seen nary further indications of this.”

California authorities accidental nary imminent threat

Authorities successful California person besides sought to reassure the nationalist that determination is presently nary confirmed threat.Governor Gavin Newsom said successful a station connected the societal media level X that officials are monitoring the concern closely.“While we are not alert of immoderate imminent threats astatine this time, we stay prepared for immoderate exigency successful our state,” helium said.The memo itself appears to person been triggered by an quality extremity that surfaced adjacent earlier the latest escalation betwixt the United States and Iran.Despite the deficiency of credible details, the informing has drawn attraction to a increasing interest among information experts: the expanding usage of long-range onslaught drones.

Why drone attacks are seen arsenic a plausible threat

Even though the FBI alert whitethorn not constituent to a credible onslaught plan, experts accidental the script described successful the memo is technically feasible.Long-range one-way onslaught drones — often called “kamikaze drones” — person go a large diagnostic of modern warfare.These systems are designed to alert agelong distances earlier crashing into a people and detonating their payload.Such drones tin question hundreds oregon adjacent thousands of miles and are comparatively inexpensive compared with accepted cruise missiles.

Their affordability and easiness of usage person made them progressively fashionable among some authorities militaries and non-state actors.Israel has agelong been a pioneer successful drone technology. However, Iran and its determination allies person besides emerged arsenic large developers and users of specified systems.Iranian drone designs person been wide utilized successful caller conflicts and person go peculiarly salient successful the warfare betwixt Russia and Ukraine.

The Shahed-136 and akin drones

One of the astir wide known Iranian drones is the Shahed-136, a long-range loitering munition that has been heavy utilized successful caller conflicts.The Shahed-136 is simply a one-way onslaught drone designed to alert agelong distances earlier striking its target. Its comparatively debased outgo allows operators to motorboat aggregate drones successful waves, overwhelming aerial defence systems.Variations of the Shahed-136 person been wide utilized by Russian forces successful Ukraine and person besides influenced the improvement of akin systems elsewhere.The United States has besides developed comparable systems, including the Low‑Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS), which was reverse-engineered from the Iranian drone design.These drones are susceptible of travelling agelong distances astatine comparatively debased altitudes, making them harder for radar systems to detect.Launching drones from shipsAnother origin that has raised interest among subject planners is the flexibility of these drones.Unlike accepted missiles that necessitate specialized motorboat platforms, galore kamikaze drones tin beryllium launched from a assortment of locations — including trucks, impermanent motorboat racks, and adjacent ships.Iran and the United States person some demonstrated that Shahed-type drones tin beryllium launched from vessels astatine sea.Importantly, specified launches bash not necessitate ample warships. Even smaller commercialized vessels could theoretically deploy these drones.This makes it easier to conceal the drones and their motorboat systems earlier an attack.Once airborne, the drones typically alert debased and slow, often beneath the radar horizon, making them hard to observe early.Their comparatively tiny size besides reduces their radar, infrared, and acoustic signatures, complicating efforts to way and intercept them.

Long-standing concerns astir offshore attacks

For years, the US subject has warned astir the anticipation of attacks launched from ships positioned offshore.These attacks could impact cruise missiles oregon drones launched from cargo vessels oregon different civilian ships.Several countries, including Russia, China, Iran and the United States, person developed rocket motorboat systems that tin beryllium hidden wrong modular shipping containers.This means that a seemingly mean commercialized vas could theoretically transportation motorboat systems susceptible of striking onshore targets.The menace has influenced respective US subject programs designed to support the homeland.For instance, the US Air Force upgraded radar systems connected its F-15C Eagle fighters to amended observe cruise missiles and drones approaching from the ocean.More recently, F-35A Lightning II jets and upgraded F-16 Viper craft person besides been tasked with homeland defence missions.These upgrades were partially driven by increasing concerns astir drones and cruise missiles.US subject admits it is playing catch-upDespite increasing consciousness of the threat, US officials person acknowledged that counter-drone defenses are inactive evolving.“We’re behind. I’ll conscionable beryllium candid. I deliberation we cognize we’re behind,” said Charles Costanza, commandant of the US Army’s V Corps, during a sheet treatment past year.“We’ve been talking astir counter-UAS capableness for the amended portion of a decade… and saw the opening of the drone capabilities,” helium said.“We aren’t moving accelerated enough.”Officials accidental the warfare successful Ukraine has highlighted however rapidly drone exertion is evolving and however wide it is being adopted.

Past incidents item the risks

Security agencies person besides investigated respective mysterious drone incidents adjacent US territory successful caller years.In 2019, US authorities examined whether a Hong Kong-flagged cargo vessel called the M/V Bass Strait mightiness person been linked to drone swarms that harassed US Navy ships disconnected the seashore of Southern California.The root of those drones has ne'er been conclusively identified.In different incidental successful 2024, US Representative Jeff Van Drew claimed that an Iranian “mothership” was launching drones adjacent the US coast.

The US subject aboriginal rejected that claim, and Van Drew withdrew his remarks.

A warning, but not a confirmed threat

While the FBI memo has sparked debate, officials stress that the accusation remains unverified and does not bespeak immoderate contiguous danger.Still, experts accidental the informing serves arsenic a reminder of the increasing relation drones could play successful aboriginal conflicts.Even if this circumstantial quality extremity turns retired to beryllium inaccurate, the anticipation of drone attacks launched from offshore platforms remains a existent interest for US information agencies.As drone exertion becomes cheaper, much capable, and wide available, the situation of defending against specified threats is expected to go progressively complex.Can Iran motorboat a 'surprise attack' connected California?An alert issued by the Federal Bureau of Investigation has raised concerns astir the anticipation of an Iranian drone onslaught targeting the US authorities of California. However, officials accent that the informing is based connected unverified quality and does not constituent to an imminent threat.The memo suggested that Iran could effort to motorboat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from a vas positioned disconnected the US seashore arsenic retaliation if the United States carried retired subject strikes connected Iran.The disclosure of the alert drew wide attraction earlier this week aft reports surfaced that the FBI had warned instrumentality enforcement agencies astir the anticipation of a seaborne “surprise attack.”According to the memo, the script progressive drones launched from a vessel determination disconnected the American coastline.

Authorities aboriginal clarified that the announcement was based connected earthy quality and was circulated retired of caution alternatively than grounds of an contiguous threat.The informing was archetypal reported by ABC News connected March 11. The FBI had earlier distributed the memo to members of a Joint Terrorism Task Force past month, earlier the latest escalation successful the Middle East conflict.The United States and Israel began carrying retired strikes connected Iran connected February 28, raising fears of imaginable retaliation.