Retail inflation outlook: CPI likely rises to 1.66% in Dec on food prices

India’s retail ostentation apt edged higher successful December 2025 to 1.66 per cent from 0.71 per cent successful November, driven by a strengthening successful nutrient prices crossed astir segments, according to projections by Union Bank of India.The authoritative Consumer Price Index (CPI) information for December is scheduled to beryllium released connected January 12, 2026, oregon the adjacent moving time if the day is simply a holiday.Despite the sequential rise, ostentation is expected to stay good beneath the 5.2 per cent recorded successful December 2024, adjacent arsenic the favourable basal effect starts to fade, the slope said. Core inflation, which excludes nutrient and fuel, is projected to emergence to 4.68 per cent, mostly owed to a renewed rally successful golden prices during December, reported quality bureau ANI.Food ostentation is apt to enactment successful antagonistic territory, though little truthful than successful November. “We expect nutrient CPI to people -1.19% arsenic against -2.78% past period and a precocious basal of 7.7% past Dec,” the Union Bank of India study said, noting that month-on-month nutrient prices accrued crossed astir categories but a fewer segments specified arsenic milk. The appraisal is based connected on-the-ground prices collected by the Department of Consumer Affairs.

According to the report, tomatoes recorded the sharpest terms gains, arsenic aboriginal wintertime boosted request portion October rains disrupted supply. The slope cautioned that portion nutrient ostentation is expected to stay mostly antagonistic successful the 3rd 4th of FY26, determination are upside risks from unseasonal wintertime rains and imaginable proviso concatenation disruptions.With ostentation mostly nether control, the Reserve Bank of India successful December chopped its CPI ostentation forecast for 2025-26 to 2.0 per cent from 2.6 per cent earlier. Quarterly projections spot ostentation astatine 0.6 per cent successful Q3 and 2.9 per cent successful Q4, earlier rising to 3.9 per cent successful Q1 of 2026-27 and 4.0 per cent successful Q2, inactive wrong the RBI’s people range.RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra described the existent macroeconomic concern arsenic a “rare goldilocks period” of beardown maturation and precise debased inflation, ANI reported. His remarks followed the cardinal bank’s determination to chopped the repo complaint by 25 ground points to 5.25 per cent successful December, with astir 80 per cent of the CPI handbasket showing ostentation beneath 4 per cent, indicating broad-based easing.