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Spot gold, pursuing a play diminution of 3.7% to $4540 successful the week ending May 15, started the week connected a anemic footing. (AI image)
Gold terms prediction today: Gold prices are improbable to emergence excessively overmuch unless crude lipid prices travel down for a longer word duration, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.Gold Performance:
- Spot gold, pursuing a play diminution of 3.7% to $4540 successful the week ending May 15, started the week connected a anemic footing arsenic it tumbled to the cycle-low enactment astatine $4480 successful the Asian league connected Monday. However, the metallic erased its losses to commercialized higher arsenic the time wore connected arsenic Iran's semi-official quality Tasnim reported that US has projected a impermanent waiver of sanctions connected Iran's oil, which has been 1 of the cardinal demands by Iran to unfastened the Strait of Hormuz.
- Spot golden roseate 1% for the time to $4584 earlier retreating arsenic doubts implicit waiver emerged.
- At the clip of writing, the shiny metallic was trading with a summation of 0.2% astatine $4547 arsenic the US Dollar was somewhat weaker owed to yields pulling backmost somewhat from the day’s highs.
- In the week ending May 15, golden prices tumbled arsenic oil, Dollar and yields surged.
Oil and geopolitics:
- Doubts implicit waiver of sanctions implicit Iran's lipid emerged arsenic Iran's semi-official Tasnim quality agency, citing a root adjacent to the negotiating team, reported that contempt changes successful the latest US draught proposal, cardinal differences remain, arsenic Tehran views US proposals including excessive demands and unrealistic positions by Washington. The Source added that Iran’s frozen assets indispensable beryllium returned to the Iranian radical “in a wide and guaranteed manner” pursuing the subject cognition against Iran.
- Oil prices recovered further arsenic the US President Trump said that Iran's caller connection is insufficient for a deal. He said that the connection lacked elaborate commitments implicit suspending Uranium enrichment oregon handing implicit its enriched heap of enriched uranium.
- Earlier connected Sunday, drones targeted a atomic installation successful UAE that prompted the US President to explicit his vexation implicit Iran arsenic helium said that timepiece is ticking for Iran. Iran did not marque immoderate nationalist comments connected attacks, though.
- Brent lipid futures traded betwixt $106.87/barrel and $112 connected Monday. At the clip of penning this article, lipid astatine $110.70 was up by 1.5% for the day.
Data roundup:
- US's NAHB Housing Market Index (May), released connected May 18, came successful astatine 37 Vs the estimation of 34.
- China's information released connected Monday were mostly disappointing. April retail income accrued 0.2% y-o-y, trailing the estimation of 2% arsenic concern accumulation roseate by 4.1% successful April Vs the estimation of 6% y-o-y. The metallic lining was easing gait of diminution successful utilized location and caller location prices. New-home prices successful 70 cities dropped 0.19% from March, the smallest driblet successful a year, and resale location values decreased 0.23%, the slowest autumn since March 2025 arsenic section governments person added measures to enactment the lodging market, including easing homebuying restrictions and granting subsidies.
ETFs and COMEX inventory:
- As of May 15, full known planetary golden ETF holdings stood astatine 98.78 MOz, down by 0.17MOz YTD, though up by 0.14MOz for the week.
- Registered COMEX golden inventory stood astatine 15.70 MOz, down by 0.12 MOz for the week.
CFTC positioning:
- As per the latest CFTC data, wealth managers accrued their bullish golden bets by 4,963 net-long positions to 100,627 -- the astir bullish successful 8 weeks. Long-only positions roseate 4,403 tons to 129,070 successful the week ending May 12 --the highest successful 8 weeks.
- Short-only positions fell 560 tons to 28,443 – the lowest successful six weeks.
US Dollar Index and yields:
- At the clip of penning this article, the US Dollar Index was trading 0.20% little astatine 99.20.
- Two-year yields, astatine 4.07% were level aft erasing the emergence to 4.10%. Similarly, ten-year yields roseate by 3 bps to a caller one-year precocious of 4.63% earlier trading level astatine 4.60%. Japan's ten-year output hardened by 1 bps, portion that of the UK fell by 3 bps to 5.14%.
- In the week ending May 15, authorities planetary enslaved selloff gathered gait connected war-driven ostentation concerns. Two- and ten-year US yields surged to the highest level successful astir a year. Japan's 30-year output deed 4% for the archetypal clip since the tenor's debut successful 1999. Similarly, UK's 30-year gilt yields surged to a 28-year precocious arsenic governmental uncertainty concerning enactment besides weighed connected the nation's bonds.
- The US Dollar Index closed with a summation of 0.47% astatine 99.28 connected May 15 arsenic it surged by 1.5% successful the week.
Upcoming information and events:
- Major US information connected pat this week see March TIC flows (May 19), FOMC minutes of April 29 gathering (May 20), April Housing starts (May 21), May S&P Global US PMIs (May 21) and May last University of Michigan Sentiment and ostentation expectations (May 22).
- Investors volition besides show Eurozone's and UK's May CPI (May 20) and May preliminary PMIs (May 21).
- Japan's April nationalist CPI volition beryllium released connected May 22.
- On May 22, the Fed Governor Waller volition talk connected economical outlook astatine Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
- Considering the contiguous environment, CPI information volition beryllium intimately monitored by investors.
Gold Price Outlook:
- Gold has been trading arsenic a hazard plus since the opening of the Iran warfare connected February 28 arsenic harmless haven bids person been trumped by rapidly fading likelihood of a complaint chopped owed to surge successful lipid prices.
- Now, investors spot 50% probability of a Fed complaint hike by the year-end, portion they measure that the Fed complaint hike could travel arsenic aboriginal arsenic March 2026.
- As lipid terms remains elevated, steadfast Dollar and precocious yields volition support the upside constricted successful gold.
- In this scenario, unless lipid prices travel down connected a factual geopolitical development, selling into rallies with strict stop-loss is advisable. A breach of enactment astatine $4480 volition unfastened the mode to $4345. Resistance is astatine $4610/$4670.
- Bullish USDINR poses a hazard to abbreviated positions though.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views connected the banal market, different plus classes oregon idiosyncratic concern absorption tips fixed by experts are their own. These opinions bash not correspond the views of The Times of India.)
