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The Middle East situation continues to choke vigor supplies crossed the satellite and propulsion crude prices higher, swinging astir $100 per tube mark. However, adjacent though input costs for vigor proceed to rise, substance prices stay unchanged successful India, pushing state-run lipid selling companies nether mounting losses.Losses are estimated astatine astir Rs 18 per litre connected petrol and Rs 35 per litre connected diesel. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) person not revised retail prices since April 2022, adjacent though planetary crude rates person fluctuated sharply during this period.Crude prices person been volatile recently, moving from supra $100 per tube to astir $70 earlier this year, earlier soaring to $120 again past period aft the Middle East warfare began.
How overmuch are lipid giants losing?
At their peak, the 3 firms were losing astir Rs 2,400 crore per time but came down to astir Rs 1,600 crore daily. The simplification came aft the authorities chopped excise work connected petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each, which was utilized to offset losses and was not passed connected to consumers, sources told PTI.Losses successful March person wiped retired gains made successful January and February, and the companies are apt to study losses for the January–March quarter.
A Macquarie Group study said, "At spot petrol-diesel pricing of $135-165 per barrel, we estimation India's lipid selling companies suffer Rs 18 and Rs 35 per litre connected petrol and diesel income (respectively)." It added that each $10 per tube emergence successful crude increases losses by astir Rs 6 per litre.The study besides flagged a imaginable substance terms hike aft elections successful West Bengal and Tamil Nadu aboriginal this month, stating, "We spot hazard of higher pump prices station authorities elections successful April."India imported astir 88% of its crude lipid needs successful 2025, making it susceptible to planetary terms changes. Imports came chiefly from the Middle East, Russia and the United States, though the state continued to export refined products similar petrol, diesel and aviation fuel.Even aft the caller work cut, cardinal taxes basal astatine Rs 11.9 per litre connected petrol and Rs 7.8 per litre connected diesel. The study said removing these wholly would inactive not afloat screen institution losses.
State VAT rates person mostly stayed unchanged.It besides warned that further taxation cuts could wounded authorities finances. A afloat rollback of excise duties could pb to a gross nonaccomplishment of astir $36 cardinal and widen the fiscal deficit.Fuel taxes present marque up astir 8% of authorities revenue, down from 22% earlier, and lend little to the fiscal shortage than before.Higher crude prices could besides widen India’s existent relationship deficit, which is expected to scope astir $20 cardinal successful the archetypal 4th of 2026.
A $10 emergence successful crude could summation the shortage further, the study said.With uncertainty astir earnings, each $1 alteration successful crude prices impacts institution net by astir 5%. The sector’s break-even crude terms is estimated astatine $80–85 per barrel. Macquarie said it prefers utilities implicit lipid companies for now.
