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One week into what Donald Trump described arsenic a “four-week operation” against Iran, the warfare already looks acold messier than the assured timelines suggested successful Washington. When US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury connected 28–29 February, the opening strikes were designed to decapitate Iran’s enactment and cripple its subject infrastructure.
American bombers and cruise missiles deed dozens of targets, elder commanders were reportedly killed, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was confirmed dead. Yet implicit a week aboriginal the struggle shows nary motion of ending.Missiles proceed to streak crossed the Middle East. Iranian drones buzz implicit Gulf cities. Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE person each reported incoming strikes.
Western aerial defences person intercepted astir of them, but not all. Fires person breached retired adjacent lipid facilities, flights person been concisely halted successful Dubai, and respective missiles person reached Israeli municipality areas.Instead of the swift decapitation onslaught immoderate successful Washington envisioned, the struggle is settling into a grinding contention of endurance. As erstwhile US President Dwight D. Eisenhower erstwhile observed, “plans are useless, but readying is indispensable.”
The opposition with the lightning American cognition successful Venezuela lone weeks earlier could not beryllium clearer. There, a azygous raid toppled Nicolás Maduro’s authorities successful conscionable implicit 2 hours. Iran, by contrast, has absorbed the archetypal blows and continues to combat back.Iran, it turns out, is not Venezuela.
From Caracas to Tehran: Lightning versus marathon
The quality betwixt Venezuela’s speedy overthrow and Iran’s grinding warfare is striking. In Caracas, a azygous well-timed commando raid successful the dormant of nighttime toppled a anemic administration.
By contrast, Iran’s authorities has weathered monolithic hits and is inactive standing, its effect inactive escalating. There are reasons wherefore Iran is not Venezuela. Militarily, Iran is vastly stronger. It possesses thousands of missiles of varying ranges and an tremendous drone fleet, whereas Venezuela had virtually nary strategical deterrent.
Geographically, Venezuela is simply a tiny state with unfastened plains astir the capital; Iran is the world’s 17th largest federation with rugged terrain and aggregate layers of defense.
Politically, Maduro’s authorities was already crumbling nether home unrest and nonaccomplishment of service morale – Iran’s regime, successful contrast, is tightly controlled by ideological forces (the IRGC) and has endured decades of overseas unit without falling.Even the US forces and risks progressive were radically different. The Venezuelan raid progressive astir 150 craft and a fewer 1000 peculiar forces. By comparison, the aerial warfare connected Iran has progressive dozens of US and Israeli jets (even B-2 bombers) backed by bearer task forces and NATO assets.
Iran’s rocket and drone barrages
In effect to the US-Israeli attacks, Tehran has thrown astir everything it has astatine its adversaries. Starting March 1, Iran launched repeated wide salvos of missiles and drones crossed the Gulf portion and astatine Israel. On the archetypal time unsocial Iran reported firing 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones toward the UAE. Some of those struck Dubai and Abu Dhabi, sending plumes of fume implicit landmarks similar the Palm Jumeirah and Burj Al Arab.
In Israel, Iranian strikes wounded civilians successful Beit Shemesh and different towns. Hezbollah successful Lebanon adjacent fired rockets toward bluish Israel, saying it was avenging Tehran. Military analysts enactment that Iran’s caller strategy is precisely astir saturation: utilizing “large salvos of ballistic missiles and loitering munitions… alongside actions by Hezbollah and different militias… to agelong Israeli and US rocket defences and enforce costs region-wide”.Iran has a divers rocket unit of its ain design, from short-range rockets to medium-range Shahab and Fateh-class missiles and beyond. It besides uses “loitering munitions” (suicide drones) successful ample numbers – chiefly the Shahed series. The Shahed-136, for example, is simply a tiny (~2–3 m) propeller-driven drone weighing astir 200 kg, with a flying scope of up to 2,000–2,500 km and a 40–60 kg warhead. (Variants whitethorn transportation up to 90 kg).
Iran’s banal of these drones is believed to beryllium vastly larger than its banal of ballistic missiles. As 1 Bloomberg expert notes, Iran’s accent connected drones suggests it is consciously preserving its missiles for aboriginal phases: “Tehran has launched much than 1,200 projectiles, galore of them Shahed drones… analysts accidental this could bespeak that Iran is conserving its ballistic missiles for aboriginal stages”. In different words, Iran is playing an endurance game.
Cheap Iranian Drones vs Expensive Defences
What makes Iran’s strategy peculiarly frustrating for its foes is the outgo imbalance betwixt its inexpensive munitions and Western interceptors. Those Shahed drones and akin UAVs outgo connected the bid of $20,000–$50,000 each. By contrast, each clip an allied air-defence strategy shoots 1 down, it burns 1 of America’s oregon Israel’s multimillion-dollar interceptors. For instance, a Patriot rocket interceptor costs astir $4 cardinal apiece.
As analysts constituent out, this mismatch has turned the struggle into a warfare of attrition. “It costs 5 times much to intercept [an Iranian drone] than it does to nutrient it,” Bloomberg’s Kelly Grieco observes. In applicable terms, that means the United States and its partners are bleeding done costly missiles and rockets conscionable to halt each inexpensive kamikaze drone.This imbalance is the halfway of Iran’s strategy. A drone that costs astir $30,000 tin unit an interceptor worthy millions into the sky.
Each engagement drains the defenders’ stockpiles faster than Tehran’s factories.
US-Israeli arsenal and aerial defences
The US and Israel person countered with their champion gear. American forces person deployed an unprecedented array of high-end weapons. US Central Command notes it is utilizing “more than 20 antithetic systems” successful the campaign. That database includes B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning combatant jets, EA-18G Growler physics warfare aircraft, and MQ-9 Reaper onslaught drones.
Naval forces launched Tomahawk cruise missiles from destroyers (USS Thomas Hudner, etc.
) to onslaught fixed targets successful Iran. They besides fired Standard SM-2/SM-6 interceptor missiles from Aegis-equipped destroyers astatine incoming threats. Army units utilized HIMARS rocket systems to deed mobile launcher columns wrong Iran. In short, each subdivision of the US subject is engaged. Air crews alert continuous combat aerial patrols implicit the Middle East, and a US bearer onslaught radical is successful the portion (the USS Gerald R.
Ford and others) successful support.
On the Israeli side, the toughest task has been aerial defence alternatively than offense. Israel is famed for its multi-tier rocket shield. Short-range rockets and drones are handled by Iron Dome batteries; mid-range threats by David’s Sling; and high-altitude ballistic missiles by the Arrow system. This layered defence has mostly worked. Reuters reported connected March 2 that “sirens dependable crossed Israel arsenic the country’s multi-layered rocket defence strategy intercepts strikes from Iran,” noting that astir incoming projectiles were changeable down.
Israeli leaders assertion their defences person changeable down astir each barrages. Nonetheless, respective missiles person slipped done – capable to origin casualties. In the two-week warfare of June 2025, astatine slightest 1 Iranian rocket penetrated the Iron Dome and deed adjacent Tel Aviv, sidesplitting implicit a twelve civilians. In the existent war, media successful Israel study astir a twelve radical killed truthful acold and a 100 oregon much wounded, retired of hundreds of rockets fired.
By Israeli standards those losses are small, grounds of however robust the air-defence has been; but they besides beryllium the shield is not impenetrable.
The US is besides reinforcing Gulf allies with air-defence batteries. Saudi Arabia and the UAE tract Patriot and THAAD batteries (some supplied by the US aft the 2025 war) to defender their bases and lipid facilities. Bahrain and Kuwait likewise trust connected Patriots. These systems person truthful acold knocked down a ample fraction of Iranian missiles and drones aimed astatine them. Saudi aerial defences reported intercepting 2 ballistic missiles and 6 drones launched astatine its Al-Kharj basal connected March 6. Qatar’s leaders said they downed 9 of 10 incoming drones successful different raid. But, arsenic successful Israel, immoderate projectiles person evaded. Debris from intercepted drones has rained connected Dubai and different cities, and astatine slightest 1 rocket reached a substance terminal successful Oman, causing fires.
Straining the stockpiles: Who volition tally retired first?
This contention is present mostly 1 of inventories. Both sides are hoarding missiles and waiting to spot whose “magazine” runs dry.
The US insists that it has a near-unlimited banal of bombs and missiles, and that they volition outlast Iran’s arsenal. President Trump has boasted that US forces tin prolong the combat “as agelong arsenic needed.” But officials softly admit they are burning done ordnance astatine an bonzer rate. As 1 Pentagon update reported by the Washington Post enactment it, successful nether a week of warfare the US has “rapidly [burned] done its stocks of precision weapons… expending blase air-defense missiles astatine a complaint that puts the US subject perchance ‘days away’ from having to prioritize which targets to intercept”.
Thousands of Patriot, THAAD and ship-based Standard missiles person already been launched against Iranian drones and rockets, and each 1 takes months to replace. Adm. Brad Cooper of CENTCOM noted implicit 2,000 strikes connected Iran truthful far; each weaponry dropped and rocket fired is 1 little successful the depot.Iran’s broadside is besides counting. The US believes Iran tin prolong the existent gait for lone “several much days” earlier its proviso of missiles starts to dwindle.
Pentagon sources accidental US-Israeli airstrikes connected Iran person already damaged motorboat sites and stockpiles, slowing down the complaint of Iranian fire.
Indeed, immoderate American analysts speculate that Tehran whitethorn statesman to ration its missiles – firing less volleys to marque its arsenal last. The war’s duration volition hinge connected specified calculations: if Iran conserves missiles and inexpensive drones, it tin prolong the conflict; if it keeps launching afloat salvos, it risks moving out.
As 1 Iran specializer cited by The Guardian said, if Iran ever runs retired of missiles it mightiness simply “have to writer for peace” and effort to rebuild.So far, a tacit equilibrium holds. For weeks US officials person insisted their ain stockpiles volition not tally abbreviated earlier Iran’s do. But they are intimately monitoring allies’ inventories too. Gulf countries study immoderate shortages: successful the erstwhile clash US-supplied THAAD launchers had to usage ~25% of their interceptors conscionable defending Israel, raising concerns astir resupply. Even Britain and others person been asked to nonstop further munitions. In Congress, lawmakers are debating whether to o.k. billions much for munitions assistance to Ukraine and the Middle East. Every enactment present wonders: which broadside tin spend to support firing for longer?
Gulf States connected the beforehand line
Much of the existent enactment has unfolded acold from Iran’s borders – close successful the Persian Gulf littoral.
Countries similar the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain are hosting American bases and truthful person go targets. On aggregate nights Sirens wailed crossed Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha arsenic Iranian missiles arced overhead. In the UAE the authorities reported 60 fires successful Dubai landmarks aft Iranian drones were intercepted overhead.Ad-Dhafra aerial basal (Abu Dhabi) concisely went connected alert, and Riyadh activated its rocket batteries arsenic projectiles approached.
Qatar’s authorities said connected 1 juncture that 98 retired of 101 incoming ballistic missiles aimed astatine its territory were changeable down. Yet Qatar’s superior endured an onslaught connected its LNG facilities that temporarily unopen down exports.
Beyond the missiles, the menace to shipping is notable. Iran has warned it could adjacent the Strait of Hormuz – a cardinal lipid chokepoint. Tankers are already diverting oregon waiting extracurricular the Gulf to debar attacks.
The hazard of hitting a civilian vas is serious: connected March 2 an Iranian rocket struck a Maltese-flagged tanker successful planetary waters adjacent Iran, puncturing its hull. While nary unit was hurt, shipping security spiked.
Oil markets are jittery astir adjacent insignificant disruptions successful the Gulf.Civilians person been inconvenienced. Airlines temporarily halted flights from Dubai and Doha during the biggest salvos. Tourists and residents spent nights successful hotels oregon bunkers.
Markets person been volatile connected the slightest hint of escalation.
What’s next?
A week into the war, 1 acquisition is already clear: Iran is not an casual target. The opening strikes killed commanders, destroyed bases and adjacent eliminated the country’s ultimate leader, yet the strategy they built remains intact and warring back. Missiles are inactive being launched, drones are inactive buzzing crossed the Gulf, and American and Israeli interceptors are inactive racing skyward each night.Washington whitethorn inactive judge its arsenal, alliances and exertion volition yet prevail. Tehran is betting that patience, geography and sheer measurement of inexpensive weapons tin level that advantage.For now, neither broadside is adjacent to backing down. And with each intercepted rocket and each drone that slips through, the aforesaid question grows louder: not who tin onslaught harder, but who tin endure longer.
