Jayalalithaa to EPS: The BJP-AIADMK on-off relationship

NEW DELHI: Once upon a time, the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK pulled the plug connected a susceptible Atal Bihari Vajpayee authorities astatine the Centre. The withdrawal of enactment successful 1999 triggered the NDA's illness aft a no-confidence motion, forcing midterm Lok Sabha elections.

For the BJP, it was not simply a governmental setback but a stinging acquisition successful the fragility of conjugation politics.By immoderate measure, the 1999 occurrence could beryllium work arsenic a betrayal. And yet, astir 3 decades on, past appears to beryllium folding successful connected itself.

With the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections conscionable months away, the BJP has formally sealed an confederation with the AIADMK, present led by erstwhile main curate and enactment wide caput Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS). The nonsubjective is unmistakable: to physique a formidable beforehand aimed astatine unseating the incumbent DMK authorities nether main curate M K Stalin.From 1999 to 2026, the narration betwixt the BJP and the AIADMK has followed a acquainted rhythm – alliance, rupture, and reunion. Despite repeated breakups, governmental compulsions person ensured that the 2 parties support uncovering their mode backmost to each other.

The pattern

While the BJP and AIADMK stock a agelong past of alliances, the narration has seldom been smooth. It has unravelled abruptly much than once, exposing heavy mistrust beneath the surface.

The astir melodramatic rupture came successful 1999, erstwhile

Jayalalithaa

withdrew enactment to the Vajpayee government, starring to its illness by a azygous vote. Yet, wrong a fewer years, the 2 parties were backmost together. That rhythm has repeated itself aggregate times since past – astir precocious aft the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, erstwhile they fought separately, lone to instrumentality to the aforesaid negotiating array up of the 2026 assembly polls.The communicative of BJP-AIADMK ties is truthful little astir ideology and much astir arithmetic – a narration driven by necessity.

A timeline of ties and tensions

1998–99: The archetypal confederation and the large collapse

In the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, which paved the mode for BJP stalwart Atal Bihari Vajpayee to go premier minister, the BJP extended a conciliatory manus to the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK. The partnership, however, proved short-lived. Within a year, the AIADMK withdrew its enactment from the NDA, bringing down the susceptible Vajpayee-led multiparty government.The rupture came against the backdrop of aggregate corruption cases against Jayalalithaa and her fraught narration with the DMK.

The Supreme Court dealt a stroke to her ineligible strategy by upholding the constitution of peculiar courts and rejecting attempts to transportation the cases backmost to regular courts. This judicial setback hardened her governmental stance, culminating successful the withdrawal of enactment from the Centre.

In a melodramatic turn, the rival DMK, led by seasoned Dravidian person M Karunanidhi, stepped successful to widen enactment to the Vajpayee government, which went connected to implicit a afloat five-year term.

2004: Reunion

Months up of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK severed ties with the BJP-led NDA. The saffron enactment past turned erstwhile again to the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK, forging a caller confederation successful Tamil Nadu. The experiment, however, yielded small electoral dividend, with the BJP failing to triumph a azygous spot successful the state.Nationally, the NDA’s “India Shining” run mislaid its sheen, paving the mode for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance to instrumentality to powerfulness astatine the Centre, with Manmohan Singh taking implicit arsenic premier minister.In May 2004, past BJP president M Venkaiah Naidu told reporters successful Chennai that the confederation with the AIADMK had been forged specifically for the elections—by past already over—signifying the mostly tactical quality of the tie-up.

2016-2019: Post-Amma era

Following the decease of seasoned person and AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa successful precocious 2016, the enactment that had ruled Tamil Nadu for decades was plunged into aggravated factionalism. A bitter succession conflict unfolded, with aggregate claimants emerging successful the post-Amma era, including the Sasikala family, O Panneerselvam and Edappadi K Palaniswami, who yet consolidated his presumption and present heads the party.During this period, portion a ceremonial confederation was absent, the AIADMK began extending policy-based enactment to the Narendra Modi-led authorities astatine the Centre.The narration yet culminated successful an electoral confederation for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The experiment, however, ended successful a rout, with the AIADMK-BJP harvester losing 39 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats successful Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

2021-2023: Together, past isolated again

Despite the 2019 debacle, the AIADMK-BJP confederation continued into the 2021 Assembly polls.

The effect was different defeat: AIADMK won conscionable 66 seats, BJP managed four, and the DMK-Congress confederation stormed backmost to powerfulness nether Stalin.

The results suggested that the confederation helped the BJP summation a foothold but did small for the AIADMK.By 2022, the BJP contested section assemblage polls alone. Ties yet snapped successful 2023 aft the BJP’s past authorities main K Annamalai made arguable remarks connected Jayalalithaa, triggering outrage wrong the AIADMK.

2026: Another comeback

Two years aft their split, the BJP and AIADMK formally came unneurotic again successful 2025, announcing that the NDA would contention the upcoming Assembly elections nether the enactment of EPS.Once again, governmental necessity trumped past bitterness.

Why they request each different successful 2026

For overmuch of the past year, negotiations betwixt the BJP and the AIADMK person been thing but decisive. The EPS-led AIADMK has repeatedly vacillated, weighing and re-weighing the costs and benefits of embracing the BJP arsenic a spouse to instrumentality connected what is wide seen arsenic a beardown and entrenched Stalin-led DMK.Despite the prolonged uncertainty, the woody present appears astir final. All indications suggest that the 2 parties are acceptable to formally revive the NDA confederation successful Tamil Nadu conscionable up of the polls.As the predetermination drumbeat grows louder, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, undoubtedly the BJP’s astir potent electoral look implicit the past decade, is scheduled to sojourn Madurai successful the past week of February. In a symbolic amusement of unity, Palaniswami is expected to stock the signifier with

PM Modi

astatine a BJP-led rally, signalling that aged animosities whitethorn yet beryllium acceptable aside.

BJP's compulsion

Tamil Nadu remains 1 of the BJP’s weakest links – a authorities wherever the saffron enactment has struggled to construe its nationalist dominance into section relevance.The BJP’s renewed propulsion for an confederation shows a hard governmental reality: the Dravidian elector basal cannot beryllium wooed by outsiders. Tamil Nadu authorities remains firmly anchored successful grassroots Tamil parties, principally the ruling DMK and the absorption AIADMK.Amit Shah

, successful particular, has sharpened his attacks connected the Stalin government, accusing it of being “the astir corrupt successful the country” and of undermining Hindu values.

His rhetoric often positions the AIADMK arsenic a “natural ally,” a enactment that straddles the enactment betwixt secular Dravidian authorities and a softer signifier of Hindu assertion.The BJP’s contiguous docket is not needfully to predominate but to forestall ballot fragmentation that would different payment the DMK-Congress alliance.

EPS’s doubts astir the BJP

The AIADMK’s hesitation is rooted successful precedent. The BJP has a way grounds of entering alliances arsenic a inferior partner, often presenting itself arsenic a supportive unit with entree to powerfulness astatine the Centre, lone to yet upend the equilibrium and look arsenic the ascendant player.The astir caller illustration is Bihar. Like the AIADMK, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) has been an on-again, off-again state of the BJP and was agelong regarded arsenic the “big brother” successful the state. That equation changed dramatically successful November 2025, erstwhile the BJP, for the archetypal time, emerged larger than the JD(U) successful presumption of seats, adjacent portion conceding the main minister’s station to Nitish Kumar.While the BJP is inactive acold from posing an contiguous menace to the AIADMK successful Tamil Nadu, the insecurity wrong the EPS campy is palpable.

Eyeing an introduction successful Tamil Nadu

The BJP’s renewed propulsion for an confederation shows a hard governmental reality: the Dravidian elector basal cannot beryllium wooed by outsiders. Tamil Nadu authorities remains firmly anchored successful grassroots Tamil parties, principally the ruling DMK and the absorption AIADMK.The BJP’s contiguous docket is not needfully to predominate but to forestall ballot fragmentation that would different payment the DMK-Congress alliance. Tamil Nadu is 1 of the fewer states wherever the BJP’s organisational beingness is weaker than that of the Congress, a enactment that has been successful dependable nationalist diminution for implicit a decade.To rebuild a broader NDA, the BJP is reaching retired to a scope of determination players. T T V Dhinakaran’s AMMK is already signalling involvement successful joining hands, portion talks are ongoing with Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) laminitis S Ramadoss. Former allies and breakaway factions are besides being courted arsenic portion of a larger consolidation exercise.Two years aft their split, the BJP and AIADMK formally came unneurotic again successful 2025, announcing that the NDA would contention the upcoming Assembly elections nether the enactment of EPS.In New Delhi, the AIADMK is seen arsenic the BJP’s superior conveyance for governmental relevance successful the confederate state, a presumption that reflects the urgency of Amit Shah’s strategy.

A 'natural alliance'

Calling the BJP-AIADMK tie-up a “natural alliance,” Shah argued that the result of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections would person been precise antithetic had the 2 parties contested together.“We fought unneurotic successful 1998, successful the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, and successful the 2021 assembly polls.

But successful 2024, we contested separately. If our ballot shares are to beryllium combined, we would person won 36 seats,” helium said, adding that 2024 and 2025 had been victorious years for the BJP successful respective states and that the inclination would repetition successful Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.

Tamil Nadu BJP main Nainar Nagenthran echoed the sentiment, claiming wide nationalist disillusionment with the DMK government. He blamed erstwhile curate Senthil Balaji for the Karur stampede during actor-politician Vijay’s TVK rally.These nationalist assertions are aimed astatine projecting confidence, yet they besides underline a deeper truth: without the AIADMK, the BJP has small realistic accidental of expanding successful Tamil Nadu connected its own.

Caste arithmetic

The AIADMK’s electoral strategy continues to absorption connected Dalits and Thevars – communities that unneurotic relationship for astir one-third of the state’s electorate. The BJP, successful contrast, is pursuing a broader Hindu consolidation strategy that often cuts crossed Tamil Nadu’s analyzable caste equations.The NDA could besides payment from the enactment of the Vanniyars, who marque up astir 15 per cent of the colonisation and are mostly represented by the PMK.EPS himself brings caste superior to the alliance. A Gounder, classified nether the Backward Classes, helium represents a assemblage that constitutes astir 7 per cent of the state’s colonisation and is concentrated successful the Kongu Nadu belt.

What next?

After years of mistrust, breakups and reconciliations, some parties present look determined to clasp hands against the Stalin government.Palaniswami has called the AIADMK-BJP confederation “essential” to unseat what helium presumption an “anti-people” DMK government.“AIADMK volition seizure powerfulness with implicit bulk successful 2026… Never successful the past of Tamil Nadu has determination been specified a corrupt, incompetent anti-people government,” EPS said.Amit Shah struck a akin tone, accusing the DMK of dynastic authorities and corruption, and declaring that the NDA would region the Stalin authorities “at each cost.”From 1999 to 2026, the BJP and AIADMK person parted ways much than once, lone to reunite erstwhile elections approach. Whether this latest reunion becomes a durable concern oregon different short-lived truce volition yet beryllium decided by the Tamil voter.