Iran war: Trump sanctions waiver or not - why India continues to buy Russian oil

In aboriginal March, India was staring astatine a imaginable crude lipid proviso occupation - the US-Iran warfare caused the Strait of Hormuz done which 20% of planetary crude transits to beryllium efficaciously closed.

To rescue came Russian crude oil! In fact, Russian crude has go a important enactment for India’s lipid imports some successful April and March. The import volumes are really touching highs seen erstwhile India was bagging Russian crude astatine a immense discount.US President Donald Trump sanctioned 2 Russian lipid majors towards the extremity of past year. This made it financially unviable for Indian refiners to proceed to bargain Russian crude astatine the aforesaid level arsenic before, though flows of unsanctioned lipid continued.However, successful March, with the US sanctions waiver successful effect, India has aggressively procured Russian crude, picking up millions of barrels. After the Russia-Ukraine war, Russian crude has maintained its presumption arsenic the largest supplier of crude lipid to India. Through Western sanctions, US President Donald Trump’s unit and sanctions connected Russian lipid majors, crude from Russia has continued to travel to India, though the levels person varied.

However, experts judge that erstwhile the concern successful the Middle East normalizes, India volition spell backmost to buying crude from Gulf countries, and Russia’s percent successful India’s lipid imports volition travel down.

US sanctions waiver & India’s assertive buying

India has ne'er officially said that it volition halt buying Russian crude, and adjacent erstwhile levels dropped aft sanctions, Russia was inactive the biggest contributor. However, the Donald Trump administration's determination to waive sanctions connected Russian crude, and widen that waiver to May has allowed Indian refiners to measurement up procurement without immoderate worries.According to the latest study from Centre for Research connected Energy and Clean Air (CREA)’s analysis, portion India’s full crude imports recorded a 4% simplification successful March, Russian imports doubled.

“The biggest displacement was successful state-owned refineries’ imports from Russia, which saw a monolithic 148% month-on-month increase. Their imports were successful information 72% higher than March 2025, presumably owed to Russian barrels being much disposable successful the spot market, which serves arsenic the superior root of imports for them,” says CREA.Russia’s stock of India’s crude lipid imports successful March 2026 placed the period astatine the precocious extremity of humanities highs, intimately mirroring highest levels seen successful 2023, erstwhile Western sanctions redirected Russian lipid flows toward Asia and made Moscow India’s azygous largest supplier.Sourav Mitra, Partner - Oil and Gas, Grant Thornton Bharat explains the emergence of Russia arsenic a ascendant supplier of crude for India.Russia’s stock surged sharply successful the months pursuing the Ukraine war, peaking during respective months successful mid‑2023, peculiarly astir May–June, erstwhile imports roseate to astir 1.9-2.0 cardinal barrels per time and accounted for astir 42-45% of India’s crude basket, displacing Iraq and Saudi Arabia. That dominance persisted done overmuch of 2023, with mean shares adjacent to 40% betwixt April and September, earlier easing successful 2024 and aboriginal 2025 arsenic terms discounts narrowed, compliance costs accrued and refiners partially rebalanced toward Middle Eastern grades.“Against this backdrop, the rebound seen successful March 2026 efficaciously matches the 2023 peak, though the underlying drivers differed, with the latest spike mostly reflecting proviso disruptions successful West Asia that curtailed Gulf inflows and compelled refiners to trust much heavy connected disposable Russian cargoes.

We expect that portion March marks a instrumentality to near‑record dependence connected Russian crude, specified elevated levels are improbable to persist erstwhile Middle Eastern proviso chains stabilize,” Mitra tells TOI.

No much discounts! India paying a premium for Russian crude

What stands retired is the information that erstwhile India stepped up its procurement of Russian crude aft the Ukraine warfare began, the lipid was disposable astatine precise steep discounts. This was owed to European sanctions that made Russian crude disposable astatine a overmuch little complaint than Brent. Come 2026, with lipid supplies via Hormuz disrupted and planetary crude lipid prices rising, Russia is present selling astatine a premium!According to Sourav Mitra of Grant Thornton Bharat, Indian refiners are presently paying a premium of astir $4-6 per tube implicit the Brent benchmark for Russian crude.

These are immoderate of the highest delivered premiums connected Russian crude since Russia began diverting ample volumes of crude to Asia aft the Ukraine war, helium tells TOI.

“This displacement is attributed to aggravated contention for punctual Russian cargoes arsenic disruptions to Middle Eastern proviso routes pushed refiners to prioritise assured deliveries implicit price. The premium contrasts starkly with February 2026, erstwhile Indian buyers were inactive securing Russian crude astatine discounts of astir $12–$15 per barrel, soon earlier conditions deteriorated successful the Strait of Hormuz,” helium elaborates.In fact, the turnaround is adjacent much pronounced compared with 2022-23, erstwhile Russian crude often traded $20-$30 beneath Brent. The terms inversion was reinforced by the US sanctions waiver issued successful aboriginal March 2026 and efficaciously released millions of barrels into the market, strengthening sellers’ leverage. “As a result, India has shifted from discount‑driven buying to security‑led procurement, paying a premium to guarantee proviso continuity portion Gulf flows stay disrupted,” helium adds.

Why India continues to bargain Russian crude

Russian lipid is not going retired of India’s crude imports anytime soon, experts say.However, Ivan Mathews, Head of APAC Analysis astatine Vortexa expects Russian crude imports to diminution month-on-month successful April. “Discounts connected Russian crude were little competitory owed to accrued request during the sanctions waiver period, which has since been extended to 16 May. This volition pb to little marginal imports for economics-driven refineries successful India.

Additionally, reduced crude loadings from Russia volition alteration the availability of Russian barrels for imports successful the coming weeks,” Mathews tells TOI.

Mitra of Grant Thornton Bharat says that Russian crude is present good integrated into India’s refining strategy and serves arsenic a reliable fallback erstwhile alternate supplies tighten. Russia is apt to stay an important supplier done 2026 adjacent arsenic its stock moderates from March’s highs and Middle Eastern flows stabilize.Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining astatine Kpler believes that Russian lipid volition proceed to beryllium a large portion of India’s crude lipid imports successful the coming months arsenic well. Currently, India’s Russian crude imports are tracking astatine astir 1.6mbd, which is astir 375 kbd little than March levels.However, arsenic Ritolia points out, this dip needs discourse arsenic Nayara (≈400 kbd, afloat reliant connected Russian crude) has been nether attraction since the 2nd week of April.

Adjusting for this, the underlying request awesome for Russian barrels remains intact.“The flows are expected to scope betwixt 1.5-2 mbd with a flimsy dip imaginable owed to ongoing infrastructure issues successful Russia owed to the struggle with Ukraine,” Ritolia tells TOI.

Interestingly, Kpler information shows that adjacent aft US sanctions connected Russian majors Lukoil and Rosneft came into effect precocious past year, Russia continued to beryllium the largest supplier of crude lipid to India.

However, admittedly the volumes saw a crisp drop, with February levels being overmuch lower. While the Donald Trump medication claimed finalising a commercialized woody contingent connected India stopping crude imports from Russia, New Delhi has ne'er said it volition not bargain lipid from Moscow.The US archetypal waived the sanctions successful aboriginal March and past extended the waiver recently. Experts are of the presumption that adjacent erstwhile the sanctions waiver lapses, Russian lipid volition proceed to beryllium imported, though the quantities whitethorn dip.“A cardinal constituent that is often missed is that Russian lipid itself is not sanctioned but definite entities, vessels, and fiscal channels are,” says Sumit Ritolia.According to Ritolia, Russia continues to beryllium a halfway supplier for India, but successful the lack of sanctions waiver procurement indispensable strictly ensure:•⁠ ⁠No engagement of sanctioned sellers oregon intermediaries•⁠ ⁠Use of non-sanctioned vessels•⁠ ⁠Fully compliant financial, insurance, and trading channelsIndia is improbable to determination distant from Russian crude successful the adjacent term.

Instead, we should expect much documentation, tighter screening alternatively than a structural displacement successful sourcing arsenic and erstwhile sanctions lapse, Ritolia added.

India’s Diversified Crude Supplies

But adjacent arsenic Russia is expected to proceed being an important subordinate successful India’s crude imports, it is arsenic important to enactment that New Delhi has diversified its handbasket to see implicit 40 countries.As Sushil Mishra, Director, Crisil Intelligence points out: Historically, Russia’s stock successful India’s crude imports peaked astatine implicit 40%, however, it has varied successful the past fewer years amid diversification efforts and evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Improved refinery flexibilities person enabled Indian refiners to process a wider scope of crude grades including those from the American, Russian, and Middle Eastern.“India continues to fortify its vigor resilience by diversifying crude sourcing and maintaining a pragmatic sourcing strategy driven by price, availability, and vigor information considerations. This attack allows flexibility to set sourcing patterns successful effect to changing planetary marketplace conditions and geopolitical developments,” helium tells TOI.