India-US trade deal unlikely to prompt near-term decline in Russian crude imports

NEW DELHI: The India-US commercialized woody is improbable to pb to a near-term simplification successful India’s imports of Russian crude oil, with supplies to beryllium stopped from sanctioned entities specified arsenic Rosneft and Lukoil.While govt is yet to remark connected US President Donald Trump's assertion that India volition halt Russian crude purchases, officials pointed retired that supplies had travel down from Nov owed to the sanctions connected the 2 entities.“The woody is improbable to effect successful a near-term simplification successful India’s Russian crude imports. Russian volumes stay mostly locked successful for the adjacent 8-10 weeks and proceed to beryllium economically captious for India’s analyzable refining system, supported by heavy discounts connected Urals comparative to ICE Brent,” said Sumit Ritolia, pb probe expert astatine Kpler, a information and analytics provider.

Data amusement that Russia’s stock successful India’s crude imports declined to 33.7% betwixt April and Nov 2025, compared with 37.9% during the corresponding play successful 2024, portion US stock roseate to 8.1% from 4.6%. According to Kpler, Russian crude imports autumn from 1.8 cardinal barrels a time successful Nov to 1.2 cardinal successful Dec and 1.16 cardinal successful Jan 2026.Experts said imports are expected to stay broadly unchangeable done archetypal and 2nd quarters of 2026-27, with the caller moderation apt to beryllium offset by higher inflows from West Asia.

A accelerated disengagement, they added, would beryllium commercially challenging and politically sensitive, making policy-driven recalibration gradual alternatively than immediate.Though Russia’s stock of India’s crude imports appears precocious successful caller years, it stood astatine conscionable astir 2% earlier the Ukraine warfare successful 2022. Prior to that, astir two-thirds of India’s crude lipid and petroleum merchandise imports came from West Asia, a stock that fell to astir 45% successful 2025.While Trump has said India volition summation lipid purchases from the US and perchance Venezuela, experts said Indian refiners are much apt to crook to West Asia suppliers to regenerate immoderate imaginable simplification successful Russian imports.Energy adept Narendra Taneja said India’s crude sourcing has ever been driven by terms alternatively than geography. “India has diversified its lipid imports and present sources crude from 41 countries.”