India’s exports to China jump 90% - but why there is little reason to cheer

India’s exports to China surged 90% successful November to deed $2.2 billion! However, the singular year-on-year spike masks the information of however volatile India’s exports to China are, and the increasing dependence connected the neighbouring state for imports, according to a caller study by Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

From April to November, exports grew by 33%, touching $12.2 billion, up from $9.2 cardinal the erstwhile year. According to GTRI, India’s commercialized narration with China has entered a signifier of crisp contrasts. “Overall, India’s export maturation to China is not broad-based. It is concentrated chiefly successful naphtha and a fewer atypical electronics products, alternatively than crossed India’s accepted export basket,” said GTRI, striking a cautious note.

Why did India’s exports to China surge?

According to GTRI laminitis Ajay Srivastava, the spike successful exports is mostly driven by a constricted scope of products. Naphtha is the largest contributor, with exports rising by 512% successful October and 172% from April to October - totaling a whopping $1.4 billion, owed to beardown Chinese request for petrochemical feedstocks. Electronics besides saw unusually crisp increases. Exports of printed circuit boards surged to $296.5 cardinal successful October, an 8,577% year-on-year increase, portion shipments from April to October roseate implicit 2,000% to $418 million.

Exports of mobile telephone components besides accrued by 82% to $362 million, which is antithetic fixed India's important imports of these items from China. In contrast, exports of robust ore continued to decline, dropping by 1.2% successful October and 30% from April to October, portion shrimp exports showed lone humble growth. Devil successful Details?India's exports of its starring 3 products to China—naphtha, robust ore, and shrimps—have seen immense fluctuations from twelvemonth to year, indicating that these exports are much influenced by Chinese request than by a unchangeable export strategy, notes GTRI.Naphtha exports accrued from $1.83 cardinal successful FY2022 to $1.91 cardinal successful FY2023, but past sharply declined to astir $1.26 cardinal successful FY2024. They remained unchanged successful FY2025.Iron ore exports were adjacent much erratic, dropping from $2.49 cardinal successful FY2022 to $1.40 cardinal successful FY2023, past rising to $3.64 cardinal successful FY2024, earlier falling again to $1.89 cardinal successful FY2025. Shrimp exports person been comparatively much unchangeable but inactive showed variations, expanding from $823 cardinal successful FY2022 to $924 cardinal successful FY2023, past decreasing to $798 cardinal successful FY2024 and $773 cardinal successful FY2025. “This uneven signifier shows that India’s cardinal exports to China deficiency consistency and mostly emergence oregon autumn with shifts successful Chinese demand, prices and policy, alternatively than reflecting sustained marketplace entree oregon diversification,” says the GTRI analysis.

What is India importing from China?

India's imports from China are heavy concentrated successful 4 main categories: machinery, electronics, plastics, and integrated chemicals - these marque up astir 80% of the total.From January to October 2025, electronics led the imports, astatine $38 billion. This included mobile telephone components ($8.6 billion), integrated circuits ($6.2 billion), laptops ($4.5 billion), star cells and modules ($3.0 billion), flat-panel displays ($2.6 billion), lithium-ion batteries ($2.3 billion), and representation chips ($1.8 billion). Machinery imports were adjacent astatine $25.9 billion, with transformers unsocial making up $2.1 billion.

This indicates India's reliance connected Chinese superior goods for powerfulness and concern projects. Organic chemicals imports touched $11.5 cardinal - this was mostly owed to $1.7 cardinal successful antibiotics. This highlights China's beardown presumption successful the pharmaceutical intermediates sector.Plastics imports were $6.3 billion, including $871 cardinal successful PVC resin, portion alloy and alloy products totaled $4.6 billion, and aesculapian and technological instrumentality added $2.5 billion. Together, these figures amusement that India’s import measure from China is anchored successful electronics, machinery, chemicals and materials that are hard to substitute quickly, explaining the persistence of a ample bilateral commercialized shortage contempt efforts to diversify proviso chains, says GTRI.

India-China Trade Deficit Mounting - and it’s a origin for worry!

The GTRI study notes that India’s commercialized spread with China is touching caller records, reflecting a skewed commercialized narration that warrants a person look.

As GTRI points retired - India's commercialized with China remains highly imbalanced, and it is characterized by anemic exports, expanding imports. A grounds commercialized shortage is expected this year.Exports person decreased from $23.0 cardinal successful 2021 to $15.2 cardinal successful 2022, remained debased astatine $14.5 cardinal successful 2023, and accrued somewhat to $15.1 cardinal successful 2024. In 2025, exports are projected to emergence to $17.5 cardinal - but this is inactive considerably beneath levels seen before.Importantly, imports person risen overmuch much rapidly—from $87.7 cardinal successful 2021 to $102.6 cardinal successful 2022, $91.8 cardinal successful 2023, and $109.6 cardinal successful 2024. In 2025, they person surged to astir $123.5 billion. This has widened India's commercialized shortage with China substantially - from $64.7 cardinal successful 2021 to $94.5 cardinal successful 2024 - with an expected $106 cardinal successful 2025.What’s adjacent much worrying is that information from China really indicates an adjacent larger gap! China’s ain estimates enactment India’s exports to it successful 2025 astatine astir $19.1 billion, portion imports are pegged overmuch higher astatine $134.3 billion, resulting successful a commercialized shortage of $115.2 billion.This spread highlights however sharply the commercialized imbalance betwixt the 2 countries has widened. A person look astatine the numbers besides shows noticeable differences betwixt information released by China Customs and India’s DGCI&S, adjacent though some sets broadly constituent successful the aforesaid direction. For example, successful November 2025, China recorded India’s exports astatine $1.9 billion, compared with $2.2 cardinal reported by Indian authorities. Over the January–November period, China’s information showed exports of $17.5 billion, portion India’s figures were little astatine $16.0 billion. Import information shows a akin divergence: China reported $11.1 cardinal of exports to India successful November and $123.1 cardinal for the archetypal eleven months of the year, exceeding India’s ain estimates of $10.3 cardinal and $113.2 billion, respectively.For the full twelvemonth of 2025, China's information suggests Indian exports of $19.1 cardinal and imports of $134.3 billion, compared to India's information showing $17.5 cardinal successful exports and $123.5 cardinal successful imports.“Normally, import values are higher than export values due to the fact that imports see freight and security (CIF), portion exports are recorded connected an FOB basis. On that logic, India reporting little imports from China than China reports arsenic exports is unusual, and whitethorn constituent to under-invoicing of imports to trim customs duties—an contented that warrants investigation,” says GTRI.“Taken together, the information shows that India’s caller export gains to China are narrow, volatile and heavy babelike connected shifts successful Chinese demand, alternatively than connected durable marketplace entree oregon a diversified export base,” it says.“Without a sustained strategy to grow competitory manufacturing, trim import dependence successful cardinal sectors, and fortify commercialized monitoring, short-term export spikes volition bash small to change the fundamentally imbalanced quality of India–China trade,” it concludes.