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India has transformed its crude sourcing strategy, reducing Russian crude barrels portion expanding its Middle Eastern shipments. Though Moscow inactive has a stock successful New Delhi's lipid inflows, the volumes are down owed to compliance risks. Data from analytics steadfast Kpler shows that successful the archetypal 3 weeks of January 2026, the state imported astir 1.1 cardinal barrels per time (bpd) of Russian crude. This was little than the mean of 1.21 cardinal bpd successful December and acold beneath the levels of much than 2 cardinal bpd seen successful mid-2025.“India's crude buying successful January 2026 shows a wide displacement toward lower-risk and much reliable supply, with Middle East barrels rising portion Russian crude flows stay contiguous but much selective and compliance-driven,” Sumit Ritolia, pb probe analyst, refining & modeling astatine Kpler, told PTI.
India leaning towards Middle East
With astir 90% of its crude lipid sourced done imports, India is erstwhile again relying much connected its accepted Middle Eastern suppliers.Now, Iraq is supplying astir the aforesaid volumes arsenic Russia, up from an mean of 9,04,000 bpd successful December 2025. Saudi Arabia’s exports to India person besides risen to 9,24,000 bpd this month, compared with 7,10,000 bpd successful December and a debased of 5,39,000 bpd successful April 2025, according to Kpler.
“India has accrued crude imports from the Middle East implicit the past 2 months, portion Russian volumes person declined arsenic sanctions and compliance unit person intensified,” the expert said. “This reflects a premix of changing economics and rising execution complexity astir Russian crude, including shipping, insurance, outgo pathways, and compliance screening.”Refiners are ramping up purchases from the Middle East to guarantee smoother deliveries and less operational issues.
This helps support stableness astatine refineries by reducing proviso and logistics challenges.
Russian crude's emergence and autumn successful India's vigor pipeline
Back successful 2022, Russia emerged arsenic India’s apical crude supplier, aft Indian refiners began buying ample volumes of discounted Russian lipid pursuing Moscow’s penetration of Ukraine. Over the period, Russian crude imports went from little than 1% of India’s full imports to astir 40% astatine their peak. However, caller US sanctions connected Russian suppliers slowed buying arsenic compliance risks person increased.
After American sanctions connected Rosneft, Lukoil and their majority-owned subsidiaries came into unit connected November 21, refiners specified arsenic Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), HPCL-Mittal Energy and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) temporarily stopped importing Russian crude.
What's adjacent for Russian lipid shipments to India?
Despite the slowdown, Russian crude is expected to stay portion of India’s import mix. Ritolia said that the diminution reflects short-term compliance issues alternatively than a implicit displacement distant from Russian oil. “India volition apt support buying of Russian crude successful aboriginal 2026, but astatine a somewhat little level than the grounds highs seen successful 2023-2025. The pullback looks much similar a short-term disruption from compliance issues alternatively than India moving distant from Russia completely. It's conscionable a adjacent word realignment, thing other successful my view. Russian crude is economical and remains a operator for refinery margins,” helium said. According to Ritolia, India’s Russian crude imports are expected to mean astir 1.2 cardinal bpd successful January 2026, with volumes for the January–March 4th projected astatine 1.3–1.5 cardinal bpd.
Meanwhile, Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy continues to trust heavy connected Russian lipid aft EU sanctions constricted different proviso options. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) are buying Russian lipid from non-sanctioned entities, and determination are signs that Reliance whitethorn besides resume purchases from specified suppliers. Furthermore, adjacent though the vigor sources person diversified, refinery economics inactive is simply a large origin successful determination making. Russian crude continues to pull buyers owed to its pricing. Urals is trading astatine a wider discount than earlier successful the 4th quarter, astatine astir $5–7 per tube beneath Oman/Dubai grades connected a delivered ground to India, compared with $2–4 per tube earlier precocious November. This makes Urals astir $4–5 per tube cheaper than before, helping enactment refinery margins wherever compliance risks tin beryllium managed, Ritolia said.
