From Chabahar to Kashmir: Why chaos in Iran hurts India, benefits China & Pakistan

As protests driven by economical distress and governmental fatigue dispersed crossed Iranian cities, New Delhi is watching events unfold with quiescent unease. For India, the question is not whether Iran’s clerical enactment tin upwind the unrest, but what a weakened oregon collapsing Iranian authorities would mean for India’s already constrained strategical environment.India’s engagement with Iran has ne'er been ideological. It has been shaped by geography, entree and balance. With Pakistan blocking overland routes to Afghanistan and Central Asia, Iran has agelong functioned arsenic India’s lone viable occidental corridor. It has besides acted arsenic a counterweight to Pakistani power successful the portion and arsenic a stabilising pillar successful India’s cautiously calibrated West Asia policy, which seeks engagement crossed rival powerfulness blocs.

A abrupt weakening oregon illness of the Iranian authorities would not nutrient a cleanable transition. It would make uncertainty astatine a infinitesimal erstwhile India’s strategical country for manoeuvre is already narrowing — with Bangladesh successful uncertainty with reports of number killings, Pakistan being Pakistan, China expanding its footprint crossed the portion and the US nether Donald Trump hurtling the satellite into 1 situation aft another.

Any disruption successful Iran would ripple outward, reshaping commercialized routes, diplomatic alignments and information calculations that India has spent decades managing.But wherefore does Iran substance to India?India’s gateway to Central AsiaFor decades, Iran has served arsenic India’s astir viable onshore span to Afghanistan and Central Asia. With Pakistan denying India overland access, Tehran became the cornerstone of New Delhi’s westward connectivity strategy.At the bosom of this imaginativeness lies Chabahar Port. Developed with Indian assistance, Chabahar was designed to springiness India nonstop entree to the Iranian coast, bypassing Pakistan entirely, and linking onward to Afghanistan and Central Asia done roadworthy and obstruction networks. For India, Chabahar was not simply a commercialized port; it was a strategical connection — impervious that geography request not beryllium destiny.

JNU prof Rajan Kumar successful speech with the Times of India says: “Iran remains India’s astir important onshore span to Central Asia, since Pakistan denies India entree to overland routes.”

Even aft the Taliban’s instrumentality to powerfulness successful Afghanistan and the stalling of obstruction projects owed to sanctions, the logic of Chabahar has not disappeared. If anything, it has go much critical.A authorities alteration that leads to prolonged instability would spot these projects successful jeopardy. Connectivity corridors necessitate governmental coherence, information guarantees and semipermanent planning. As Kumar warns, “In a post-Khamenei powerfulness struggle, Chabahar risks becoming a hostage to instability alternatively than a strategical asset.”

For India, losing Iran arsenic a unchangeable transit spouse would mean losing its lone realistic entree constituent to Central Asia.How Iran historically balanced PakistanIran’s worth to India has not lone been geographic; it has besides been strategic. Despite being a Muslim-majority country, Tehran has ne'er aligned itself with Pakistan’s anti-India narrative. On the contrary, Iran has consistently opposed Sunni extremist groups that endanger Shia populations — the precise networks that person targeted Indian interests implicit the decades.This divergence mattered profoundly successful the 1990s and aboriginal 2000s. As Pakistan backed the Taliban to unafraid “strategic depth” successful Afghanistan, Iran and India recovered themselves connected the aforesaid side, supporting anti-Taliban forces. This convergence softly constricted Pakistan’s power successful the portion and prevented Islamabad from monopolising Afghanistan’s governmental future.If Iran weakens oregon splinters, that equilibrium erodes by default.

Pakistan’s power successful Afghanistan and Central Asia would turn — not needfully done melodramatic victories, but done the lack of a counterweight.

Kumar puts it starkly: “If Iran weakens oregon fragments internally, Pakistan stands to summation indirectly.”Iran has besides been a diplomatic counterweight to Pakistan. In the mid-1990s, erstwhile Pakistan pushed for planetary sanctions connected India implicit Kashmir, Tehran came to India’s aid.A weakened Iran would region these quiescent levers of power against Pakistan. Professor Kumar warns that “India would surely suffer an important counterweight successful the portion if determination is simply a authorities alteration successful Iran and a authorities hostile to India comes to power”. For India already facing a locked-out occidental corridor (due to Pakistani opposition), Tehran’s enactment connected determination issues – adjacent if mostly rhetorical – is valuable.

As Kumar notes, Iran has “never aligned itself with Pakistan’s presumption connected Kashmir successful immoderate substantive way.” The Shia factorIran is the world’s largest Shia-majority power, and its presumption successful West Asia gives it a distinctive relation arsenic a counterweight to Sunni-dominated states specified arsenic Saudi Arabia. A illness of Iran’s Shia clerical strategy – oregon its replacement by a Sunni-leaning authorities aligned with Gulf capitals oregon the United States – could permission the Middle East much uniformly Sunni-oriented.

For India, that displacement would matter. New Delhi has cautiously built relationships crossed spiritual and governmental divides, engaging simultaneously with Tehran, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Tel Aviv and Washington. This broad-based engagement has agelong reflected India’s non-aligned and pluralist overseas argumentation tradition.

A marginalised oregon weakened Iran would deprive India of 1 of its cardinal diplomatic levers.

There is besides scepticism astir the presumption that authorities alteration would automatically nutrient a much mean oregon wide government.

As Dr Ashok Sharma cautions, “even if determination is simply a authorities change, it does not automatically mean the adjacent dispensation volition beryllium wide oregon fundamentally different”. He adds that “whether the authorities is Shia oregon Sunni does not radically change the strategical picture, due to the fact that the interior dynamics successful West Asia are acold much complicated”.

From New Delhi’s perspective, the illness of the existent bid could simply pb to different ideologically rigid theocracy, making outcomes harder to predict.

India has often recovered it safer to woody with a familiar, if difficult, clerical constitution than to navigate an uncertain and perchance hostile alternative.This dilemma is sharpened by India’s heavy economical and quality ties with the Sunni Gulf states, wherever millions of Indian nationals unrecorded and work. Yet India’s diplomatic occurrence successful West Asia has rested connected its non-sectarian posture. As Kumar observes, “India has softly benefited from Iran being the main Shia powerfulness successful West Asia.”

With Iran successful its existent role, India has been capable to support productive relations crossed the region. Kumar argues that India’s spot lies successful “multi-alignment”, combining adjacent ties with the US, Israel and Gulf Arab states with a long-standing concern with Tehran. A much one-dimensional, Sunni-aligned Middle East would unit India into uncomfortable strategical trade-offs.

There is besides a information dimension. Iran has often opposed Sunni extremist groups that endanger some Shias and Indian interests.Organisations specified arsenic the Taliban and ISIS person targeted Shia communities successful Iran, prompting Tehran to deploy forces similar the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against them.These are the aforesaid militant networks that person attacked Indian interests successful Afghanistan and Pakistan. Losing Iran arsenic a counterweight to specified extremism would adhd to determination instability. As Prof Kumar puts it, “India has beardown relations with Shia Iran arsenic good arsenic Sunni countries… if Iran were besides to crook hostile, [that] would make superior strategical problems for India successful West Asia and beyond”.Trade relations and economical stakesIn commercialized terms, India–Iran commerce is presently small, but not negligible. India’s full bilateral commercialized with Iran was astir $1.3–$1.7 cardinal successful the past twelvemonth – astir 0.1% of India’s wide trade. The bulk of this is Indian exports of foodgrains (especially basmati rice), pharmaceuticals and cultivation goods. Conversely, India’s imports from Iran are constricted – mostly adust fruits and immoderate chemicals – and lipid imports person been virtually eliminated by sanctions.

In practice, astir Indo-Iran commercialized contiguous qualifies arsenic “humanitarian” (food and medicine) and is exempt from penalties.

So wherefore does Iran substance economically? First, commercialized is simply a awesome of wider connectivity. The information that India inactive ranks among Iran’s apical 10 sources for exports (around 8th spot successful 2025) indicates these linkages, nevertheless small, are hard to replace.Second, India has sunk implicit $1 cardinal into Chabahar and related projects, with committed recognition lines for infrastructure.

Any authorities alteration that imperils these investments would beryllium a nonstop deed connected payer money. Already, India had to hold oregon restructure parts of the task to comply with US sanctions. Another disruption could unit India to constitute disconnected oregon renegotiate much of its contributions.The China angleIran’s tilt successful favour of China is different crushed India indispensable beryllium wary of upheaval successful Tehran. In 2021, Iran and China inked a much-publicized 25-year strategical practice pact.

Trade information bespeak this pivot. In 2024–25, China was by acold Iran’s largest export market, implicit $14.5 cardinal worthy of Iranian goods went to China, astir of it lipid and gas. In fact, arsenic Western sanctions person bitten, Tehran has leaned heavy connected Beijing to bargain its discounted lipid and money infrastructure projects.If Tehran were to interruption with its existing regime, China could perchance reap much benefits. An Iran successful chaos oregon a authorities installed with outer backing mightiness thin adjacent further connected Beijing for information and investment.

Already, Iranian officials are discussing Chinese-funded powerfulness plants and larboard projects successful Khuzestan. Subnational ties are increasing too: President Xi has visited Iran and assured continued support.

A caller Chinese-aligned authorities successful Tehran could marginalize India’s role.Conversely, India’s beingness successful Iran – particularly astatine Chabahar – is simply a humble counterbalance to China’s inroads. Beijing-backed Gwadar Port successful Pakistan and the INSTC are portion of 2 competing visions.

For New Delhi the nonaccomplishment of Tehran arsenic an autarkic subordinate lone leaves much abstraction for Chinese dominance. Professor Kumar emphasizes this point: “Given the ongoing protests, India is apt to follow a ‘wait and watch’ policy,” helium says, wary of what a US-backed oregon abrupt authorities alteration could mean. If a caller Iranian authorities tilts sharply toward 1 side, India’s quality to prosecute with aggregate poles (Tehran, Riyadh, Washington, adjacent Beijing) would shrink.

Thus, authorities upheaval could inadvertently vantage China: a stronger Iran–China axis would springiness Beijing a bigger accidental successful Iran’s determination posture, perchance to India’s detriment.Pragmatism and caution: India’s DilemmaFaced with these realities, India’s overseas argumentation has truthful acold been cautious. New Delhi has refrained from overtly supporting Iranian protesters oregon endorsing authorities change. As Prof. Kumar notes, “India would not enactment protestation groups oregon immoderate signifier of outer involution successful Iran… Any governmental change, if it occurs, indispensable beryllium domestic.”

India’s BRICS doctrine of sovereignty and non-interference is besides guiding this approach.

The precedence is to support lines of connection unfastened with Iran’s government, nevertheless challenged it whitethorn be.Dr Sharma highlights that India’s extremity is continuity of engagement, not ideological victory. “Even if determination is simply a authorities change… from India’s perspective, whether the authorities is Shia oregon Sunni does not radically change the strategical picture,” helium told the Times of India. New Delhi’s policy, helium argues, volition stay pragmatic: engaging Tehran portion managing relations with different powers. In practice, that means making definite that sanctions oregon a caller authorities bash not strangle projects similar Chabahar entirely. It besides means relying connected India’s heavy ties with the United States and the Gulf to support leverage.The glass-half-empty script for India is clear: Iranian clerical regularisation remains imperfect, but it is predictable and has afforded India important strategical benefits.

A abrupt authorities alteration – particularly 1 that is precipitated oregon exploited by overseas powers – could upend this delicate equilibrium. As Prof Kumar bluntly puts it, “Continuity successful Iran’s existent strategy has often served India’s interests amended than chaos.” Iran’s existent strategy is constraining, often frustrating, and progressively brittle. Yet it remains a known quantity, 1 with which India has learned to negociate access, equilibrium rivals, and sphere strategical autonomy.A fractured Iran, oregon 1 pulled decisively into the orbit of a azygous outer power, would constrictive India’s diplomatic options and weaken its long-standing argumentation of multi-alignment. For India, a unchangeable if frosty Tehran is little risky than an unstable oregon hostile one.