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CHENNAI: The headline-grabbing turnout of 83.7% masks a quieter world — actually, less radical voted than the past 2 assembly elections.In percent terms, information till 9.30pm (excluding postal ballots) showed that the metropolis logged a crisp leap from 60% successful 2021 and 61.2% successful 2016. But successful implicit terms, lone 23.7 lakh votes were polled this year, little than the 24.16 lakh polled successful 2021 and 24.3 lakh recorded successful 2016. Nearly 15,000 postal ballots were registered successful 2021.
The driblet is much pronounced implicit time. While 2021 saw a marginal dip of 17,100 votes from 2016, 2026 recorded a larger autumn of astir 47,000 votes (as of 9pm) from 2021 levels, contempt the ‘surge’ successful turnout percentage. Five retired of the 16 halfway metropolis constituencies saw marginal summation successful the turnout, portion Perambur recorded astir the aforesaid turnout.
Kolathur saw 5,000 much voters than past time, portion Thiru Vi KaNagar saw 7,000 much voters.
Velachery’s turnout accrued by astir 2,000. RK Nagar saw 10,000 less voters arsenic of 9pm, compared to 2021, portion Perambur touched astir the aforesaid 2 lakh votes it polled past time. Villivakkam saw 7,000 less votes. Chepauk and Royapuram saw 1,000 and 3,000 summation respectively.The reason: A shrinking elector base. Following SIR revision, Chennai’s electorate fell from much than 40 lakh successful 2021 to 28.3 lakh successful 2026.
A smaller denominator has inflated the turnout percentage, adjacent arsenic full votes polled declined. In elemental terms, a larger stock of asmaller excavation has voted.Though the near-similar fig of voters formed their ballots successful 3 elections — 2011, 2016 and 2021 — Chennai has swung betwixt DMK and AIADMK. The AIADMK won 14 of the 16 seats successful 2011, DMK took 10 successful 2016, and past swept each 16 successful 2021. In 2011, the triumph margins were big, portion successful 2016, astir 7 constituencies were narrow, portion successful 2021, 2 seats were narrow.Arun Krishnamurthy, psephologist astatine Krish Info Media, said the revised rolls bespeak a “more realistic electorate”. “The turnout successful implicit numbers is not an anomaly. With akin figures, results person swung some ways earlier. These numbers won’t power outcomes.”He said ballot distribution, not turnout, volition determine the election, particularly with a stronger multi-cornered contest. “There’s a 3rd subordinate now.
In astir seats, it is simply a threecornered combat wherever AIADMK remains competitive.”Ramu Manivannan, prof of governmental subject astatine Madras University, said higher turnout percent does not needfully bespeak elector enthusiasm. “There is curiosity erstwhile a caller subordinate enters, but turnout doesn’t seizure that. SIR has regulated deletions. What matters is however votes divided successful bipolar and triangular contests.”
