Can US run out of missiles? A major supply chain gap could spell trouble

As conflicts from Venezuela to West Asia thrust a renewed surge successful US request for missiles and munitions, a little disposable but progressively captious bottleneck is emerging heavy wrong the American defence proviso chain.

The occupation is not a deficiency of rocket designs oregon premier contractors, but a increasing shortage of coagulated rocket motors and, much importantly, the specialised materials and components needed to nutrient them, according to reporting by Breaking Defense.Senior manufacture executives told Breaking Defense that portion the Pentagon is pushing to rapidly grow munitions stockpiles, the fragile and highly concentrated proviso concatenation that underpins coagulated rocket motors has not kept pace.

This mismatch is raising concerns astir whether the United States tin standard rocket accumulation accelerated capable successful a prolonged, multi-theatre situation environment.

Why coagulated rocket motors matter

Solid rocket motors powerfulness galore of the US military’s astir important weapons, including the Army’s Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System and the Navy’s Standard Missile family. Demand for these systems has surged successful caller years arsenic Washington replenishes stocks drawn down by enactment for allies and prepares for high-intensity conflicts.

That surge has encouraged caller players to participate the marketplace and pushed established manufacturers to expand. However, executives accidental maturation astatine the apical has not been matched by maturation astatine the little tiers of the proviso chain, wherever galore captious parts and chemicals are produced by conscionable 1 oregon 2 suppliers.“We don’t truly request a 3rd coagulated rocket centrifugal provider,” L3Harris CEO Chris Kubasik said successful September. “We request much companies that marque nozzles.

We request much companies that marque igniters. We request much companies that marque cases.”

Small suppliers nether pressure

One illustration highlighted by Breaking Defense is Helicon Chemical Company, a tiny Orlando-based steadfast trying to go a 2nd supplier for HTPB-45M, a binding cause utilized successful astir coagulated rocket motors. Helicon planned to acceptable up accumulation successful West Virginia, backed by a $15 cardinal Pentagon contract. That backing has been stalled by fund uncertainty.“The concern is aggravated by the ongoing lapse successful the Small Business Innovation Research program,” Helicon CEO Jack Sarnicki told Breaking Defense, adding that different authorities shutdown could beryllium devastating.“Everything has travel to a screeching halt,” Sarnicki said. “If we don’t get nether declaration and different authorities shutdown occurs, we could person existent issues with my company. We would astir apt person to deliberation astir laying disconnected people.”Even if backing resumes, Helicon estimates it would instrumentality 18 months to 2 years to suffice production, meaning each hold straight extends the timeline earlier a 2nd supplier becomes available.

A shrinking concern base

According to defence analytics steadfast Govini, the US concern basal for coagulated rocket motors has dramatically narrowed implicit the past 3 decades. Between 1995 and 2017, the fig of US providers fell from six to conscionable two, Orbital ATK, present portion of Northrop Grumman, and Aerojet Rocketdyne, acquired by L3Harris successful 2023.

A 3rd producer, Norway-based Nammo, manufactures immoderate motors overseas.While startups specified arsenic Anduril, Ursa Major and X-Bow, on with firms similar General Dynamics, are present trying to grow capacity, Govini warns that galore captious inputs stay single-source oregon person agelong pb times.“The Department enactment has a existent accidental close now,” Govini CEO Tara Murphy Dougherty told Breaking Defense. “But arsenic of close now, they’re going to bash things the nonstop aforesaid mode and someway expect antithetic results from a proviso concatenation absorption perspective.”

The ripple effect risk

One of the biggest vulnerabilities lies successful energetics, the chemicals that alteration propulsion. Govini notes that American Pacific Corporation is the lone US-based shaper of ammonium perchlorate, a cardinal propellant ingredient, creating what it calls a “single constituent of failure.”Nammo encountered a akin hazard successful 2025, erstwhile a chemic supplier for 1 of its propellants went retired of concern without an alternate source.

Andy Davis, Nammo’s vice president of engineering and strategy, explained wherefore specified disruptions are hard to hole quickly.“One of the challenges you person that radical don’t recognize is simply a propellant formulation is made up of, say, 10 to 12 ingredients,” Davis said. “So if you take, say, aluminum powder, and you’ve qualified a formulation with 1 aluminum pulverization and that shaper nary longer supplies that aluminum, it’s not arsenic elemental arsenic ‘I’m conscionable going to spell get different aluminum pulverization and enactment it in.’”Replacing a azygous constituent tin unit companies to requalify the propellant, the rocket centrifugal and sometimes the full missile, a process that tin instrumentality years.The risks are not theoretical. In October, an detonation astatine Accurate Energetic Systems successful Tennessee killed 16 radical and destroyed a installation that Govini identified arsenic a sub-tier supplier to Aerojet Rocketdyne, Northrop and Nammo.“This should beryllium a aftermath up call,” Murphy Dougherty said. “There’s conscionable a deficiency of redundancy for a batch of these components and parts successful captious systems similar coagulated rocket motors.”

How companies are responding

To enactment astir bottlenecks, companies are adopting antithetic strategies. Anduril is pushing suppliers to grow into adjacent components and, successful immoderate cases, teaching them caller manufacturing techniques.“We’ve fired motors with that case,” said Bret Perry, Anduril’s caput of maturation for rocket centrifugal systems, referring to a supplier it helped modulation into making centrifugal cases.Ursa Major is betting connected vertical integration, producing much components in-house.

“We’re really buying pulverization and sintering it ourselves,” said Bill Murray, the company’s vice president of merchandise and engineering.Large primes are besides investing heavily. L3Harris has spent much than $250 cardinal connected long-lead materials and supplier upgrades, portion Northrop Grumman says it has invested implicit $1 cardinal crossed its coagulated rocket centrifugal facilities and plans to treble output implicit 4 years.

Pentagon backing and lingering gaps

Congress has allocated billions of dollars to enactment up the coagulated rocket centrifugal concern base, including hundreds of millions specifically for second-source suppliers.

The Pentagon has awarded contracts to grow nozzle and centrifugal lawsuit accumulation and to prototype caller manufacturing techniques.Yet for tiny suppliers similar Helicon, the spread betwixt argumentation intent and on-the-ground world remains wide.“We’re a tiny institution mode down the nutrient chain,” Sarnicki said. “You’ll work the articles that Raytheon gets a immense contract, oregon Northrop gets it. Everything seems great. But you person to beryllium capable to nutrient it.”As the US accelerates rocket accumulation amid planetary instability, Breaking Defense reports that the occurrence of that effort whitethorn hinge little connected header contracts and much connected whether the Pentagon tin stabilise and diversify the susceptible proviso chains that beryllium acold from nationalist view.