Can the '3Gs' disrupt BJP's hold on Assam? How Congress is weaponising regional politics

As Assam heads into the April 9 assembly elections, the governmental contention successful the authorities is progressively being framed arsenic a conflict betwixt the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ‘three Gogois'.At 1 level, this is simply a straightforward electoral fight. The BJP, led by main curate Himanta Biswa Sarma is seeking a 3rd consecutive word successful the state. On the different broadside is the absorption confederation led by the Congress, bringing unneurotic determination and Left forces successful an effort to alteration the governmental dynamics of the state.

Behind the associated confederation lies a layered communicative shaped by idiosyncratic rivalries, shifting loyalties and individuality politics.At the bosom of Assam’s absorption are 3 leaders who hap to stock a surname but travel precise antithetic governmental paths: Gaurav Gogoi of Congress, Akhil Gogoi of Raijor Dal and Lurinjyoti Gogoi of Assam Jatiya Parishad. While Gaurav roseate done his family’s governmental legacy, Akhil gained prominence via long-standing grassroots activism and Lurinjyoti emerged arsenic a cardinal fig during the anti-Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) movement.

A contention framed arsenic ‘3 Gs vs BJP’

The BJP has been speedy to weaponise this coincidence of surnames, turning it into a governmental narrative. Himanta has repeatedly clubbed the 3 leaders together, portraying them arsenic a agreed beforehand that represents interests opposed to the BJP’s imaginativeness of Assam.In run speeches, Sarma has accused the trio of backing what helium calls “miyas”, a word utilized to notation to Bengali-origin Muslims. “Be assured, the time BJP won’t beryllium successful power, starting from superior Dispur, full Assam volition beryllium taken implicit by miyas.

If the 3 Gogois are doing authorities nether cover, we are doing works for radical openly. We person people’s blessings, and the absorption won’t travel successful contention with america anyhow successful the election,” helium had said. Himanta has framed the predetermination arsenic a conflict to support Assamese identity. The connection is clear: the BJP is positioning itself arsenic the defender of demographic and taste balance, portion coating the absorption arsenic aligned with forces that endanger it.

The opposition, however, rejects this framing, arguing it is simply a deliberate effort to polarise voters and distract from governance issues. To antagonistic the BJP, the 3 leaders person travel unneurotic nether a broader Congress-led coalition, the Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM). The alliance, aimed astatine consolidating anti-BJP votes, includes Congress, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI(M), CPI(ML) Liberation and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference.“We felt it was clip to instrumentality our views unneurotic to the public. Hence, we volition motorboat the associated run from present on,” Gaurav said portion announcing the alliance. Lurinjyoti connected his party’s confederation with the Congress said, “We person joined hands to nonstop a wide connection to the radical that we are agreed successful our travel to oust the communal BJP. Our agreed travel has started.” In Assam’s 126-member assembly, the BJP presently holds 64 MLAs, with allies AGP (9), UPPL (7), and BPF (3), portion Congress has 26 MLAs, AIUDF 15, CPM 1 and Independent one.

Yet, contempt the BJP’s effort to nine them together, the 3 Gogois are not a monolithic bloc. Each represents a chiseled governmental constituency, ideological presumption and strategy.

Gaurav Gogoi vs Himanta Biswa Sarma: A rivalry rooted successful the past

At the centre of Assam’s 2026 assembly elections lies the progressively bitter face-off betwixt Gaurav Gogoi and Himanta Biswa Sarma.The latest flashpoint came erstwhile Sarma alleged that Gogoi had links with Pakistan, claiming that the Congress person had made a ‘confidential visit’ to the Islamic federation successful 2013 and raising questions astir his activities there. He adjacent suggested that Gogoi could look superior charges if helium failed to explicate the trip. “If Gogoi cannot travel retired cleanable connected his Pakistan stay, past charges of ‘rashtra-droh’ (treason) volition person to beryllium imposed connected him,” Sarma alleged.

Gogoi dismissed the allegations arsenic mindless and bogus, accusing the main curate of embarrassing himself and engaging successful governmental theatrics. “Nobody successful Assam is taking his words seriously. #SuperFlop.

He should alternatively explicate however his household managed to get 12,000 bighas oregon 4000 acres of premier spot crossed Assam,” Gaurav jibed. This warfare of words is not an isolated incident. It is the latest section successful a rivalry that dates backmost to their days successful Congress.Sarma was erstwhile 1 of the astir influential leaders successful the Congress authorities led by erstwhile main curate Tarun Gogoi, Gaurav’s father. However, tensions began to aboveground erstwhile Gaurav started playing a much progressive relation successful the party’s affairs.

Sarma, who had ambitions of becoming main minister, felt sidelined.

The breaking constituent came up of the 2016 assembly elections, erstwhile the Congress enactment appeared to favour Gaurav Gogoi arsenic a aboriginal look of the party. Sarma near the Congress successful 2015 and joined the BJP, taking respective MLAs with him, a determination that importantly weakened the Congress and paved the mode for the BJP’s emergence successful Assam.

Reflecting connected his departure from Congress, Sarma said, “Madam (Sonia Gandhi) had asked maine to determine connected the day and I had told her that I would instrumentality oath the time aft the Ambubachi Mela astatine Kamakhya Temple successful June (2014).

The concern changed aft Rahul Gandhi made the calls.”Since then, the Sarma-Gogoi rivalry has lone intensified marked by different celebrated ‘biscuit episode’. In 2017, Sarma explained however Rahul Gandhi had offered him a biscuit aft feeding it to his dog, remarking, “Not lone Rahul Gandhi but the full household could not marque maine devour that biscuit. I americium a arrogant Assamese and Indian. I refused to devour and resigned from the Congress.”What began arsenic an interior powerfulness conflict wrong the Congress has present evolved into 1 of the astir high-stakes governmental confrontations successful the state.

Akhil Gogoi: The agitator turned challenger

Akhil Gogoi, the laminitis of Raijor Dal, brings a distinctly activistic vigor to Assam’s absorption camp.An activist-turned-politician, Akhil Gogoi roseate to prominence done his grassroots movements against corruption and onshore rights issues. His absorption to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) made him a cardinal fig successful the protests that swept Assam, peculiarly successful Upper Assam.

He has besides campaigned against BJP stalwart Sarbanand Sonowal successful the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but lost. Now starring the Raijor Dal, helium has positioned himself arsenic a dependable of determination assertion and anti-establishment politics. He won the Sivasagar spot successful 2021, adjacent portion remaining successful jailhouse owed to protests. Akhil has repeatedly criticised the BJP, accusing the enactment of neglecting determination issues and polarising communities. Ahead of the 2026 elections, Raijor Dal withdrew candidates from respective constituencies to debar splitting votes against the BJP. His enactment is fielding candidates successful 16 constituencies.

Lurinjyoti Gogoi: Regional individuality and the AJP experiment

Lurinjyoti Gogoi, president of the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), represents yet different strand of Assam’s absorption politics, 1 centred connected determination individuality and the bequest of the anti-CAA movement.The AJP was formed successful the aftermath of the protests, seeking to construe the sentiment of Assamese nationalism into an electoral force.

While the enactment has struggled to execute large electoral occurrence truthful far, it continues to person power successful pockets of Upper Assam.

For the 2026 assembly elections, the AJP is contesting 10 seats. Lurinjyoti Gogoi’s situation lies successful expanding this basal and converting ideological enactment into votes. His contention successful constituencies similar Khowang is being intimately watched arsenic a trial of whether determination parties tin inactive carve retired abstraction successful a governmental scenery progressively dominated by nationalist players.

Upper Assam: The bosom of the battle

If determination is 1 portion wherever this three-cornered dynamic becomes astir visible, it is Upper Assam.This belt, which includes districts similar Jorhat, Sivasagar and Dibrugarh, is not lone politically important but besides symbolically important. It is location to the Ahom community, beverage plot workers and has a beardown consciousness of determination identity.For the BJP, retaining its clasp implicit Upper Assam is indispensable to securing a 3rd term.

For the opposition, making inroads present is cardinal to mounting a credible challenge. What makes this contention unsocial is that each 3 Gogois person power successful this region.This has created the communicative of ‘Gogoi vs Gogoi’, wherever Himanta Biswa Sarma positions himself against the trio, framing it arsenic a conflict betwixt the ruling BJP and a agreed absorption front.

BJP’s strategy: Identity, improvement and dominance

The BJP’s run successful Assam continues to trust connected a operation of improvement promises and individuality politics.On the 1 hand, the enactment highlights infrastructure projects, payment schemes and governance achievements nether some the authorities and cardinal governments. On the different hand, it has sharpened its rhetoric astir issues specified arsenic amerciable immigration, demographic alteration and taste preservation.Sarma has been peculiarly vocal successful informing that a Congress-led authorities would pb to a nonaccomplishment of power implicit the state’s demographic balance.At the aforesaid time, the BJP appears assured astir its electoral prospects. Sarma has dismissed the absorption confederation arsenic ineffective, claiming that BJP workers are progressive connected the crushed portion absorption leaders are confined to meetings.

Opposition unity: Strength oregon fragility?

The enactment of an absorption confederation marks a important improvement successful Assam’s governmental landscape.Bringing unneurotic the Congress, Raijor Dal, AJP and Left parties, the confederation seeks to debar ballot part and contiguous a consolidated situation to the BJP.

However, specified coalitions are not without challenges.Seat-sharing negotiations, ideological differences and enactment questions proceed to airs imaginable risks. The occurrence of the confederation volition beryllium not conscionable connected arithmetic but besides connected its quality to support unity and coherence passim the campaign.

The information down the politics

Beyond the rhetoric and alliances, information from the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) provides important insights into the quality of the contest.An investigation of 722 candidates shows that 14% person declared transgression cases, with 11% facing superior charges. Among large parties, 9% of BJP candidates person transgression cases, compared to 28% successful the Congress and 37% successful the AIUDF.

The information besides highlights the increasing relation of wealth successful elections. Nearly 39% of candidates are crorepatis, with mean assets per campaigner lasting astatine Rs 3.25 crore.Perhaps astir striking is the summation successful wealthiness among re-contesting MLAs.

Their mean assets person risen from Rs 4.17 crore successful 2021 to Rs 7.52 crore successful 2026, an 80% leap implicit 5 years.

What this predetermination is truly about

As campaigning intensifies, the Assam elections of 2026 are paving the mode for 2 large possibilities. For the BJP, the stakes are clear: securing a 3rd word and demonstrating that its dominance successful the authorities is not babelike connected allies.For the opposition, the predetermination is simply a trial of whether unity tin construe into electoral occurrence and whether leaders similar Gaurav Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi and Lurinjyoti Gogoi tin unneurotic situation the BJP’s narrative.At a deeper level, the contention reflects competing visions of Assam’s future: 1 centred connected beardown centralised enactment and individuality authorities and the different connected determination assertion and coalition-building.What is definite is that the conflict betwixt the BJP and the ‘three Gogois’ has added a caller magnitude to Assam’s governmental landscape.As the authorities heads to the polls, the question is nary longer conscionable who volition win, but what benignant of authorities volition specify Assam successful the years to come.