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MK Stalin, Mamata Banerjee, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Pinarayi Vijayan (File photos)
NEW DELHI: The ruling NDA led by the BJP had a batch to cheer successful 2025 with decisive victories successful Delhi and Bihar - the 2 states wherever assembly elections were held this year. For the opposition, 2025 was a twelvemonth of disappointments.
While the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP was defeated successful Delhi, the Mahagathbandhan of Congress, Lalu Prasad’s RJD and the Left was decimated successful Bihar.
But 2026 could beryllium an accidental for the absorption to bounce backmost arsenic 4 states and 1 Union Territory – West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry — volition ballot to take their caller assemblies. Except Assam, which is ruled by the BJP, the absorption has a ascendant beingness successful the different 3 states.
PM Modi aft Bihar victory
With polls owed betwixt March and May 2026, parties person already begun calibrating strategies and sharpening their transportation to voters.In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress volition beryllium defending its fortress arsenic it seeks to clasp disconnected a renewed BJP push, portion the Congress and Left volition marque different effort to retrieve mislaid governmental ground.In Kerala, the CPM-led LDF is eyeing an unprecedented 3rd consecutive word — a feat unheard of successful the state’s accepted pendulum-like politics.
Tamil Nadu is preparing for different circular of the Dravidian duel, with the DMK and AIADMK erstwhile again anchoring the state’s governmental battlefield.In Assam, the BJP-led NDA nether Himanta Biswa Sarma volition combat to clasp the authorities adjacent arsenic the Congress looks to signifier a revival.Meanwhile, successful Puducherry, N Rangasamy’s AINRC–BJP conjugation faces the situation of holding unneurotic a fragile confederation against a DMK seeking to widen its footprint and a weakened Congress attempting a comeback.A cardinal undercurrent crossed these contests is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, extended to respective poll-bound states including West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The 2026 elections volition truthful unfold connected updated elector lists — a origin that could alteration a batch of things.
West Bengal
Buoyed by its sweeping triumph successful the caller Bihar assembly elections, the BJP has made its ambitions clear: Bengal is the saffron party's adjacent battleground.Ahead of the 2026 polls, the BJP is pushing hard to crook momentum into seats. Meanwhile, the TMC, which won 213 of the 294 assembly seats successful 2021 with astir 48% ballot share, is backmost successful afloat run mode, defending a fortress it has held for implicit a decade. With the Congress enactment struggling to regain its footing, the signifier is acceptable for a high-stakes governmental showdown.
What’s astatine stake?
BJP's rising influence
From a humble beingness successful 2016 with conscionable 3 seats, the BJP surged to 77 seats and astir 38% of the ballot stock successful 2021.
The 2026 elections volition trial whether this was a impermanent surge oregon the opening of a sustained situation to the TMC's dominance successful Bengal.
TMC's incumbency challenge
With 213+ seats and 48% ballot stock successful 2021, Mamata Banerjee enters 2026 arsenic the incumbent with the widest lead. She has already begun mobilisation and outreach, but the existent situation is holding this precocious ceiling successful the look of anti-incumbency and a much assertive BJP than before.
Congress fights for relevance
From being a ascendant unit pre-2011 to being astir wiped retired successful 2021, Congress is present battling for visibility. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury’s removal and Subhankar Sarkar’s assignment hasn’t yet translated into a large governmental connection oregon run repositioning leaving Congress inactive searching for footing.
INDIA bloc?
With the aboriginal of the opposition's INDIA bloc uncertain and Mamata Banerjee repeatedly hinting that TMC volition contention Bengal alone, Congress risks being caught betwixt 2 compulsions: aligning nationally versus confronting TMC locally."Bengal is ours, we volition combat present alone,” the West Bengal main curate Mamata Banerjee has already declared.
SIR factor
Additionally, the 2026 elections volition beryllium conducted nether a Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. Changes successful elector registrations, peculiarly successful minority-heavy oregon municipality constituencies, could importantly interaction the margins successful cardinal plaything seats.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu is gearing up not lone for different showdown betwixt Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), but besides for a perchance game-changing 3rd force.The introduction of TVK nether Vijay has made Tamil Nadu assembly elections successful the authorities each the much interesting.
Tamil Nadu assembly elections 2021
What's astatine stake?
DMK’s incumbency test
The ruling DMK enters 2026 from a presumption of strength, having secured 133 seats connected its ain successful the erstwhile assembly election. However, the enactment faces a tougher governmental scenery this time, with the AIADMK–BJP confederation regrouped and amended aligned than successful 2021. Tamil Nadu main curate Stalin has already announced that the enactment volition contention the authorities polls arsenic portion of the INDIA bloc, calling it an ideological concern built connected shared goals.The existent test, however, lies successful whether DMK tin flooded anti-incumbency pressures, support its payment and governance record, and negociate elector expectations connected issues similar jobs, NEET exemption and powerfulness tariffs.
AIADMK–BJP alliance
The 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly predetermination is simply a high-stakes conflict for the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which is desperately looking for a comeback aft 2 consecutive electoral defeats.
The large question for 2026 is whether the renewed AIADMK–BJP concern tin construe into seats. In 2021, the AIADMK-led beforehand won 75 seats, portion the BJP remained a secondary force. However, unneurotic they stay the largest challenger bloc to the ruling DMK.
Edappadi K. Palaniswami has already acceptable the tone, vowing that the beforehand volition “shatter Stalin’s imagination of winning 200 seats” and predicting that the confederation could transverse 210.A cardinal origin that complicates the absorption arithmetic is the introduction of histrion Vijay with his party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), whose determination to contention unsocial threatens to divided the anti-DMK vote.
TVK factor
The 2026 Tamil Nadu predetermination is the important electoral debut for histrion Vijay’s TVK, who has boldly declared the contention arsenic a "TVK versus DMK" combat and positioned himself arsenic the alternate to “Stalin uncle”. Vijay has monolithic younker pursuing and has a imaginable astonishment origin to disrupt the accepted bipolar contest.
However, the tragic Karur stampede that claimed 41 lives during 1 of his pre-poll roadshows casts a important antagonistic shadow.
The incidental has been heavy leveraged by the opposition, forcing Vijay and the TVK to support their competence and triumph nationalist trust.
Assam
In Assam, the BJP-led NDA nether the enactment of main curate Himanta Biswa Sarma. who has go 1 of the party’s astir salient determination faces, volition combat to clasp the state, aiming to unafraid an unprecedented 3rd consecutive term.
What's astatine stake?
BJP’s determination dominance
Despite the 75 seats won successful 2021, anti-incumbency remains a large underlying challenge. Chief curate Sarma, however, has acceptable an assertive target, confidently claiming the NDA is susceptible of winning "104 retired of 126 seats".
Congress's revival test
The Congress, which won 50 seats successful 2021, is hopeless for a comeback, led by the recently appointed authorities chief, Gaurav Gogoi. The enactment is trying to leverage the "10-year anti-incumbency" against the BJP, with Gogoi stating, "After 10 years of BJP's corrupt and authoritarian rule, the radical of Assam privation change."This
election is simply a idiosyncratic trial for Gogoi, who indispensable beryllium helium tin construe his Lok Sabha triumph into a wider assembly-level revival for the party.
AIUDF’s dilemma
Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF won 16 seats successful 2021, performing powerfully successful Muslim-majority pockets. A breakup with Congress oregon a solo contention could divided the absorption ballot — benefiting BJP successful triangular fights.
Kerala
Kerala heads into 2026 with 1 of the rarest scenarios successful its electoral past — a ruling beforehand attempting to triumph a 3rd consecutive term.
The CPI(M)-led LDF broke the state’s alternating signifier successful 2021, winning 99 of 140 seats portion the Congress-led UDF slipped to 41, and the BJP erstwhile again failed to unfastened its account.
Kerala assembly elections 2021
What's astatine stake?
LDF’s third-term bid
The LDF has ne'er won 3 consecutive assemblies successful Kerala’s antiauthoritarian history. For the CPI(M), which leads the front, this predetermination is captious arsenic Kerala remains the lone large authorities wherever the Left is presently successful powerfulness connected its ain strength.
Chief curate Pinarayi Vijayan, who volition again pb the front, is campaigning connected the taxable of "continuity for progress." Senior CPI(M) leaders, similar KN Balagopal, person publically stated that "continuity was captious to support the momentum" of improvement and payment policies.
However, the LDF faces a important anti-incumbency challenge, which the absorption is leveraging to antagonistic the government’s claims of development.
UDF's existential battle
UDF dropped from 47 seats successful 2016 to 41 successful 2021, inactive holding a sizable ballot stock but struggling to person it. 2026 is the coalition’s champion accidental to regain crushed if anti-incumbency builds. A anemic effect could propulsion UDF further into inertia, shrinking the Congress footprint successful different confederate state.
BJP — inactive connected the sidelines?
BJP has contested aggressively for 2 cycles but holds zero MLA seats successful Kerala. If it breaks that obstruction successful 2026 — adjacent with 1–3 wins — it changes the dynamics of the House.
If it fails again, Kerala remains 1 of the past large states extracurricular BJP’s elected footprint.
Puducherry
In Puducherry, N Rangasamy’s AINRC–BJP conjugation faces the situation of holding unneurotic a fragile confederation against a resurgent DMK seeking to widen its footprint and a weakened Congress attempting a comeback.
What's astatine stake?
NDA's fragile coalition
The ruling NDA is led by the All India NR Congress (AINRC) and BJP. In 2021, the AINRC won 10 seats and the BJP won 6 seats.
This conjugation is nether immense unit owed to interior discord and anti-incumbency. The interior rift was brought to the forefront by the resignation of a lone Dalit curate AK Sai J Saravanan Kumar, connected the determination of the precocious command.The determination triggered beardown reactions and exposed deeper responsibility lines wrong the conjugation and the section BJP unit.
DMK's effort to expand
The DMK entered the 2021 Puducherry polls with constricted crushed beingness but inactive emerged with 6 seats, overtaking the Congress to go the largest absorption party.
For 2026, the main situation for DMK would beryllium to widen its footprint successful the Union territory and person power into numbers.
Congress — survival, not dominance
Like successful galore different states, the Congress is warring for endurance successful Puducherry too. Once the ruling enactment here, it has slipped to the margins since the 2021 election. For Congress, 2026 is not astir winning power; it is astir preventing irrelevance. A tally of 5–6 seats keeps it alive; thing beneath that accelerates decline.
The expansive aged enactment indispensable past earlier it tin compete.The Election Commission’s SIR of electoral rolls has already raised the transportation successful these states, with the BJP powerfully backing the workout portion the absorption accusing the canvass assemblage of helping the saffron enactment summation an vantage implicit its governmental opponents. 2026 is intelligibly each acceptable for absorbing electoral contests.
