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Domestic rider conveyance (PV) volumes are estimated to turn 4–6 per cent year-on-year successful 2026–27, supported by sustained request momentum.Srikumar Krishnamurthy, elder vice president & co-group caput – firm ratings astatine ICRA, said, “The existent fiscal has unfolded arsenic a communicative of 2 halves for the Indian automotive industry, with the archetypal fractional witnessing subdued request portion the 2nd fractional is seeing a beardown betterment connected the backmost of argumentation enactment and steadfast agrarian demand.
”“Industry income volumes person been robust implicit the past fewer months, aided by the GST complaint cut, pent-up demand, supportive agrarian output, and conducive financing environment. Although request sentiment remains optimistic, volumes are reaching levels that would measurement connected the imaginable for outsized maturation successful 2026-27,” helium added, arsenic quoted by quality bureau ANI.ICRA expects PV wholesale volumes to turn 5–7 per cent successful 2025–26 earlier moderating to 4–6 per cent successful 2026–27, owed to a higher basal and elevated system-level inventory.Utility vehicles proceed to outperform different categories, supported by shifting user preferences and caller exemplary launches. The stock of alternate powertrains — including CNG, hybrids and electrical vehicles, is rising steadily amid regulatory pushes and evolving lawsuit preferences.
Two-wheelers: Growth to easiness aft recovery
The two-wheeler (2W) manufacture is presently witnessing a gradual recovery, with maturation estimated astatine 6–9 per cent successful 2025–26, aided by steadfast cultivation output and improved financing availability.
However, maturation is expected to normalise to 3–5 per cent successful 2026–27.ICRA noted that premiumisation is shaping request trends successful the segment. While entry-level motorcycle request remains nether unit owed to affordability constraints, premium motorcycles and scooters person recorded a crisp recovery.
Commercial vehicles: Bus conception to lead
Commercial conveyance (CV) wholesale volumes are projected to grow 7–9 per cent successful 2025–26, led by the airy commercialized conveyance and autobus segments.Replacement request and infrastructure enactment stay supportive, though regulation-led terms hikes whitethorn bounds stronger maturation for trucks.For 2026–27, the CV conception is estimated to turn 4–6 per cent overall, with autobus volumes expected to outperform astatine 7–9 per cent growth, driven by replacement request from State Road Transport Undertakings.
Electrification: A cardinal structural theme
Highlighting broader manufacture trends, Krishnamurthy said, “The Indian automotive manufacture is presently astatine crossroads amid changing user preferences, technological advancements, and absorption connected sustainability.” “ICRA expects the maturation trajectory to proceed successful 2026-27, adjacent arsenic maturation is apt to stay humble crossed segments. Over the mean term, conveyance electrification is expected to beryllium a cardinal structural theme, with EV penetration rising steadily crossed segments”, Krishnamurthy added.Overall, portion maturation is acceptable to proceed into 2026–27, it is expected to stay mean arsenic the manufacture adjusts to a higher basal and evolving request dynamics.
