A NOTAble warning for Congress in West Bengal

If NOTA, oregon None of the Above, is meant to beryllium a protestation button, Bengal’s 2026 assembly predetermination showed a mellowing of that protest. But the aforesaid information besides flashed a sharper warning, not for TMC oregon the Left, but for Congress.Across the comparable 293-seat basal (Falta is yet to vote), NOTA votes dropped from 6.53 lakh successful 2021 to 4.95 lakh successful 2026. That is simply a autumn of 1.58 lakh votes, oregon 24.24%. This was not due to the fact that less radical voted. Total votes polled successful these aforesaid seats roseate from astir 6.01 crore to 6.38 crore. Yet less voters chose NOTA. Its ballot stock slipped from 1.09% to 0.78%.In 2021, NOTA ranked 4th successful 195 seats. In 2026, it ranked 4th successful lone 80.

It moved down the campaigner order, much often finishing fifth, sixth oregon lower. By itself, this should person been a communicative of NOTA losing visibility. However, the information besides serves arsenic a proxy for Congress's performance. NOTA exceeded Congress successful 92 seats, RSP successful 3, and AIFB and CPI(M) successful 2 each. NOTA’s median ballot successful 2026 was lone astir 1,569. That is not high.

But Congress’s median was lone 1,924, and successful 156 of its 292 contests, Congress polled less than 2,000 votes.

The opposition with different parties explains wherefore the fig looks truthful stark. BJP’s lowest ballot number was 13,180. TMC’s lowest was 38,876. NOTA was ne'er going to transverse them.

The 2021 opposition makes Congress’s illness clearer. That year, Congress contested acold less seats due to the fact that of its seat-sharing statement with the Left. In the comparable base, it contested 91 seats, and NOTA outpolled Congress successful lone Kalimpong.

Congress’s median ballot successful those seats was astir 16,770. In 2026, Congress contested astir everywhere, but its median ballot fell to astir 1,924.That is the shift, from a constricted contention with a ballot level to a near-universal contention without one.

There is an statement that sometimes elections are astir rebuilding the organisation without leaning connected different party’s ballot slope arsenic a crutch. But adjacent by that standard, Congress looked underprepared.

It was precocious successful announcing candidates, putting retired its archetypal important database astir 10-12 days aft the different large parties. In an predetermination already facing a binary, that was a large slip. Candidates request clip to go visible, revive section networks, energise cadres.The effect was abysmal successful respective constituencies. In Kultali, Congress got 331 votes, oregon 0.13%. In Bhatpara, it got 439. In Nandigram, the spot that became Bengal’s governmental theatre successful 2021, Congress polled 794.The territory representation says the aforesaid thing.

In Purba Medinipur, Congress’s aggregate ballot stock was 0.52%. In Jhargram, it was 0.70%. In some South 24 Parganas and North 24 Parganas, contempt Congress contesting galore seats, its aggregate stock was lone 0.73%.Also Read: Decoding Bengal SIR data: Of 123 margins, 49 successful person focus

Congress did triumph 2 seats, the aforesaid arsenic the Left confederation including ISF. But that aboveground parity hides a deeper difference. Congress’s beingness was highly constricted successful astir places, dissimilar the Left, which retained a much regular footprint wherever it contested.

Among the large parties, Congress had the highest coefficient of saltation successful votes astatine 2.02. TMC had the lowest astatine 0.22, followed by BJP astatine 0.29 and CPI(M) astatine 0.82.

Simply put, TMC had the astir adjacent ballot dispersed crossed constituencies; Congress had the astir erratic one.This matters beyond the arithmetic.

After the results, Rahul Gandhi’s archetypal instinct was not to observe TMC’s defeat. He warned enactment members “gloating” implicit Trinamool’s nonaccomplishment and framed Assam and Bengal arsenic portion of a larger antiauthoritarian crisis.

Rohan Mitra, Congress campaigner from Ballygunge, replied with the enactment of a disciplined but bruised enactment worker, “Sir, they abused you, they abused us, they called america much names than anyone else. Anyways, your bid is ours to follow.

”Then came Mamata Banerjee’s ain post-result call.On the time Suvendu Adhikari took oath arsenic Bengal’s BJP main minister, Mamata asked non-BJP parties, including the Left and ultra-Left, to physique a associated level against BJP.

She said she was personally consenting to speech to immoderate enactment funny successful specified an inaugural and described BJP arsenic the “first enemy”. Veteran Congress person Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury criticised Mamata for her past actions and said that she should archetypal state Rahul Gandhi the person of the INDIA confederation earlier immoderate further consideration.

That is the Congress dilemma successful Bengal. Local leaders look much inclined to rebuild the organisation from scratch.

Mamata’s overtures, however, whitethorn mean Congress is drawn into immoderate aboriginal electoral understanding, giving it a higher level than it had successful 2026. But whether specified an statement would let Congress to grow beyond its accepted pockets successful Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad, oregon simply past arsenic a inferior partner, volition stay the existent subtext of immoderate aboriginal alliance.

Beyond Congress’s humiliation, NOTA itself made lone a constricted dent successful this election. The highest mean NOTA stock successful immoderate territory was lone astir 1.22%, seen successful Jhargram, Kalimpong and Paschim Bardhaman.In 5 seats, Rajarhat New Town, Satgachhia, Jangipara, Indas and Raina, NOTA votes exceeded the triumph margin. In each five, BJP bushed TMC.In ample parts of Bengal, Congress is nary longer adjacent the default protestation choice.If Bengal’s NOTA ballot carried a protest, it was quieter than successful 2021. If it carried a warning, it was loudest for Congress.