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Putin is making his archetypal diplomatic sojourn to India since the struggle successful Ukraine started. (AI image)
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s India sojourn this week is being intimately watched by the satellite - what volition it mean for India’s commercialized dynamics with some Russia and the US. Will India bring down its crude lipid imports from Russia oregon look to support its autonomy portion navigating unit from US President Donald Trump? The reply is not straightforward - laced successful geopolitical, economical and diplomatic issues!Putin is making his archetypal diplomatic sojourn to India since the struggle successful Ukraine started, marking a important diplomatic milestone amidst analyzable geopolitical circumstances.
Discounted Russian crude has reshaped India’s vigor information but deepened its vulnerability to sanctions and geopolitical risk, says Ajay Srivastava, laminitis of Global Trade Research Initiative.The sojourn occurs astatine a analyzable time. India faces continuous US unit regarding its Russian lipid purchases whilst being urged to summation entree for American products and defence instrumentality successful its markets.“Putin’s sojourn is not a nostalgic instrumentality to Cold War diplomacy.
It is simply a dialog implicit risk, proviso chains and economical insulation. A humble result volition unafraid lipid and defence; an ambitious 1 volition reshape determination economics. The sojourn is yet not astir choosing sides—but astir managing dependence successful a fractured world,” GTRI says.History explains the resilience of the partnership. During the Cold War, the United States backed Pakistan and deployed the USS Enterprise during the 1971 war.
The Soviet Union responded with weapons enactment and diplomatic shielding astatine the United Nations. Moscow stood by India aft its 1962 warfare with China, provided repeated diplomatic backing implicit Kashmir, and remained a defence spouse aft India’s 1998 atomic tests brought Western sanctions.
“ Over decades, Russia transferred strategical technologies the West withheld. Even today, astir 60–70% of India’s subject platforms stay of Russian origin.
The concern was built successful conflict, not commerce,” the deliberation vessel says.Also Read | Trump sanctions: India’s crude imports from Russia astatine 5-month precocious - tin it continue?According to GTRI, India’s existent engagement with Russia rests connected 3 pillars—energy, defence and diplomacy. Energy present dominates the relationship.Russia has go India’s largest crude lipid supplier, accounting for arsenic overmuch arsenic 30–35% of full lipid imports, turning discounted crude into the instauration of the partnership. Defence forms the 2nd pillar. Russia continues to proviso and work a bulk of India’s frontline platforms—fighter jets, submarines, tanks and aerial defence systems—and talks proceed connected attraction enactment and aboriginal acquisitions. The 3rd pillar is diplomatic coordination done multilaterals including BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the Eastern Economic Forum, alongside practice successful atomic power, abstraction exploration, fertilizers and connectivity.Even arsenic India deepens relations with Washington, Brussels and Tokyo, it treats Moscow arsenic indispensable to its strategical autonomy, notes GTRI.
India’s Growing Imports of Russian Crude Oil
Russia has emerged arsenic India's main lipid supplier, making up astir one-third of full crude imports successful 2024. A important summation successful India's expenditure connected Russian lipid is evident, rising from $2.3bn successful 2021 to $52.7bn successful 2024 - a important displacement successful vigor procurement patterns.
- Russia's presumption successful India's lipid procurement scenery has seen a important displacement since the Ukraine conflict. Prior to 2021, Russian proviso was minimal, with yearly crude purchases hovering astir $2-3 billion, constituting conscionable 1-2% of India's full lipid acquisitions.
- This script altered importantly successful 2022, with purchases reaching $25.5 billion, expanding Russia's publication to astir 15% of India's crude imports, arsenic sanctions redirected Russian lipid towards Asian markets astatine reduced prices.
- The figures escalated successful 2023, with imports reaching $48.6 billion, pushing Russia's stock to 34.6%, establishing it arsenic India's superior lipid supplier, surpassing accepted Gulf sources.
- In 2024, the worth accrued to $52.7 billion, with Russia's information reaching 37.3% of full crude imports. This three-year modulation has fundamentally altered India's vigor information considerations and accrued its engagement successful planetary lipid sanctions politics.
India’s Crude Oil Imports-US$ Billion
| Year | Import Oil from Russia | Import Oil from World | Share of Russian lipid successful India lipid imports | Imports full from Russia |
| 2017 | 1.3 | 82.1 | 1.6 | 8 |
| 2018 | 1.2 | 114.7 | 1.1 | 6.8 |
| 2019 | 1.5 | 101.9 | 1.4 | 6.2 |
| 2020 | 0.9 | 64.6 | 1.4 | 5.9 |
| 2021 | 2.3 | 106.4 | 2.2 | 8.7 |
| 2022 | 25.5 | 173.5 | 14.7 | 40.6 |
| 2023 | 48.6 | 140.4 | 34.6 | 67.1 |
| 2024 | 52.7 | 141.5 | 37.3 | 67.2 |
| 2025(Jan-Sep) | 33.5 | 105.3 | 31.8 | 45.3 |
Financial sanctions person necessitated alternate outgo arrangements. Following Russia's partial SWIFT exclusion, payments present impact aggregate currencies: dirhams (60-65%), rupees (25-30%), and yuan (5-10%). Approximately ₹60,000 crore successful rupees stay mostly unutilised successful dedicated Indian accounts. Russian penchant has shifted towards UAE dirham settlements, offering amended spending and conversion flexibility.
Yuan transactions hap periodically. While functional, this statement remains susceptible to instability and governmental pressures.“In energy, New Delhi is expected to prosecute semipermanent crude contracts with Non US sanctioned Russian firms similar Lukoil and Roseneft, revival of Indian investments successful Russian vigor projects, and advancement of atomic practice beyond Kudankulam. Cooperation successful captious minerals, manufacturing and maritime connectivity linking India with Russia’s Far East whitethorn besides beryllium discussed,” says GTRI.Also Read | India’s emotion for Russian lipid continues? State refiners prime non-sanctioned crude astatine higher discounts; but volition Moscow stay apical supplier?
India-Russia: Trade & Defence Dynamics
GTRI points retired the defence narration remains vital, arsenic astir two-thirds of India's subject instrumentality comes from Russia, linking operational capableness to Russian components and modernisation programmes.Indian defence officials program to petition faster transportation of further S-400 Triumf systems whilst seeking assurances regarding attraction and upgrades for Russian-origin equipment.
Discussions astir the Su-57 stealth combatant are anticipated, though chiefly arsenic a semipermanent imaginable alternatively than contiguous acquisition.India's exports to Russia basal astatine astir $5bn annually, whilst imports, chiefly energy-related, scope astir $64bn. India’s export footprint successful Russia is narrow, with pharmaceuticals and machinery beardown but garments, electronics and user goods negligible.
Payments are progressively de-dollarised, routed done UAE dirhams, rupees and yuan, reflecting the workaround system created by sanctions, says GTRI.Trade figures betwixt India and Russia amusement a important imbalance, with constricted export enlargement but important energy-focused imports. Indian exports accrued from $4.3 cardinal successful FY24 to $4.9 cardinal successful FY25, achieving $2.25 cardinal during April-September 2025.The exports ore chiefly connected concern and chemic products, with machinery ($367.8 million), pharmaceuticals ($246 million), and integrated chemicals ($165.8 million) constituting the main stock successful FY26's archetypal half. Other sectors amusement minimal presence: smartphones ($75.9 million), Vannamei shrimp ($75.7 million), nutrient ($63 million), and garments ($20.94 million), reflecting India's restricted entree to Russian user markets and electronics sectors contempt strategical shifts.Russian imports support their dominance, reaching $63.2 cardinal successful FY24 and $63.8 cardinal successful FY25, with April-September 2025 signaling $31.2 billion. The import creation heavy features petroleum, specifically crude lipid ($23.1 billion) and petroleum products ($2.5 billion), alongside ember ($1.9 billion). Essential imports see fertilisers ($1.3 billion), sunflower effect lipid ($633 million), and diamonds ($202 million).This creates an unbalanced trading narration wherever India depends connected Russia for important vigor resources and earthy materials whilst facing challenges successful expanding its value-added exports, creating a commercialized dynamic susceptible to planetary commodity terms fluctuations.
What volition beryllium the result of Putin’s India visit?
GTRI envisions 2 scenarios arsenic outcomes of Putin’s sojourn to India:The astir apt result is simply a cautious strengthening of existing ties.
India could unafraid steadfast timelines connected defence deliveries, attraction contracts, and exertion upgrades for aircraft, tanks and submarines. Russia, successful turn, whitethorn fastener successful semipermanent vigor commitments—including revived Indian equity successful LNG fields, multi-year crude proviso agreements, and accelerated atomic works construction, says GTRI.
The 2 countries whitethorn besides formalize a caller outgo model utilizing the dirham oregon integrate Russia’s SPFS strategy with India’s RuPay network.
This script stabilizes the narration without importantly raising diplomatic costs, it says.The much ambitious alternate would people a deeper realignment. “India and Russia could hold connected associated accumulation of defence equipment, Indian concern successful Russian lipid and state projects specified arsenic Arctic LNG 2 oregon Vostok, and enlargement of atomic practice beyond existing reactors,” says the deliberation tank. “Connectivity initiatives similar the Chennai–Vladivostok corridor oregon nodes of the International North–South Transport Corridor could besides summation momentum.
A structured colony model could beryllium unveiled to trim idle rupee balances. This script would reshape India’s Eurasian integration—but perchance provoke sharper Western response,” it adds.“Beyond optics, the acme is astir securing fuel, weapons and payments against a satellite of fiscal and governmental fragmentation. For India, the situation is strategical balance—protecting autonomy portion navigating unit from Washington and dependence connected Moscow,” concludes GTRI.
