2 months ago
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Gold’s semipermanent outlook remains bullish arsenic planetary de-dollarisation, rising fiscal accent and escalating geopolitical tensions reshape the planetary fiscal order, according to a study by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL).In its latest Precious Metals Quarterly Report, the brokerage said golden prices crossed the $5,000 per ounce people successful aboriginal 2026, marking 1 of the strongest semipermanent bull phases successful modern history.The steadfast said golden has entered a “structural repricing phase,” signalling the opening of a caller supercycle alternatively than a short-term cyclical rally.
Target of $6,000 successful 12 months, $7,500 mean term
MOFSL expects Comex golden to settee towards $6,000 per ounce — equivalent to astir Rs 1.85 lakh per 10 grams domestically — implicit the adjacent 12 months.
It besides sees the imaginable for prices to determination towards $7,500 per ounce successful the mean word if geopolitical and fiscal pressures intensify.“The semipermanent outlook for golden remains positive. As planetary reserves gradually diversify distant from dollar-centric assets and carnal proviso remains constrained, golden prices are apt to enactment supported astir and supra $5,000 per ounce,” Navneet Damani, caput of research, Commodities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, arsenic quoted by quality bureau PTI.
Damani added that the existent rhythm is being driven not conscionable by inflation, but by assurance — oregon the deficiency of it — successful fiscal and monetary systems.
Gold rises contempt affirmative existent rates
The study highlighted that golden continued to ascent adjacent erstwhile existent involvement rates were affirmative betwixt 2023 and 2025 — a play erstwhile prices would typically decline.This inclination indicates that investors are progressively disquieted astir mounting planetary indebtedness levels and the semipermanent stableness of fiscal and monetary frameworks.“Gold's spot contempt affirmative existent involvement rates shows a wide displacement successful capitalist thinking. Real returns are progressively seen arsenic impermanent and policy-driven, which reduces the outgo of holding golden and strengthens its relation arsenic a safeguard against broader fiscal risks,” Manav Modi, expert - commodities, MOFSL, said.
Geopolitical tensions, proviso constraints adhd support
According to the report, rising geopolitical tensions successful Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Asia, on with renewed commercialized tensions and tariff-related disruptions, person heightened ostentation and currency volatility, making golden much charismatic arsenic a neutral and reliable asset.Damani noted that arsenic fiscal accent increases and questions look implicit monetary independence, gold’s relation arsenic non-sovereign wealth has gained prominence, starring to a structural displacement successful demand.The brokerage besides pointed to choky planetary carnal proviso conditions supporting prices. Limited excavation output, shrinking inventories crossed large exchanges and rising accumulation costs person kept precious metallic prices elevated.
Domestic request and cardinal slope buying
On the home front, rupee depreciation and beardown retail request person further supported golden prices. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) person seen renewed inflows aft years of decline, the study said.Central banks person remained accordant buyers, adding astir 1,000 tonnes of golden annually for 4 consecutive years arsenic portion of efforts to diversify reserves and trim reliance connected dollar-based assets.Overall, MOFSL expects golden to stay good supported implicit the agelong term, driven by reserve diversification, constrained proviso maturation and ongoing planetary economical and geopolitical uncertainty.
