Aviation industry: ICRA keeps outlook ‘stable’ as domestic traffic set for modest rise

India’s civilian aviation assemblage is expected to turn steadily but astatine a humble gait this fiscal year, with home rider postulation apt to grow by 4–6 per cent successful 2025-26, standing bureau ICRA has said.

As per quality bureau ANI, the bureau retained its “stable” outlook connected the manufacture adjacent arsenic the April–October 2025 play recorded 944.5 lakh home passengers, marking a year-on-year emergence of 1.6 per cent.ICRA noted that maturation would person been stronger had the assemblage not faced respective setbacks earlier successful the year. Cross-border tensions resulted successful formation cancellations and operational disruptions, portion the AI171 calamity successful June 2025 triggered question hesitancy successful the weeks that followed, reported ANI. Trade pressures arising from US tariffs are besides expected to measurement connected concern sentiment, perchance slowing question request successful the coming quarters.Further disruption came successful November 2025, erstwhile Air Traffic Control issues led to further cancellations. ICRA said these would enactment arsenic a “milder” resistance connected maturation compared with earlier shocks.International rider postulation for Indian carriers is projected to turn faster, with ICRA estimating a 13–15 per cent emergence successful 2025-26.

The bureau added that hose yields volition request adjacent monitoring owed to their dependence connected aviation turbine substance (ATF) prices and the rupee–dollar speech rate. ATF costs—accounting for 30–40 per cent of an airline’s operating expenses—averaged Rs 95,181 per KL successful 2024-25, astir 8 per cent little year-on-year. Prices betwixt April and November 2025 were down by 6.5 per cent.Despite easing substance costs, ICRA expects the manufacture to station a nett nonaccomplishment of Rs 95–105 cardinal successful 2025-26, compared with an estimated Rs 55 cardinal nonaccomplishment successful 2024-25. The bureau said losses would emergence chiefly owed to slowing rider maturation coinciding with an summation successful craft deliveries. However, it stressed that these losses stay acold little than the Rs 216 cardinal and Rs 179 cardinal recorded successful 2021-22 and 2022-23.ICRA besides highlighted uneven fiscal wellness crossed airlines. While immoderate carriers payment from steadfast liquidity positions oregon backing from beardown genitor companies, others proceed to look unit connected some recognition metrics and currency flows, contempt gradual betterment successful caller years.