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US President Donald Trump has publically predicted an imminent woody to extremity the Iran warfare astatine slightest 38 times since March, according to CNN's tally, with each assertion followed by nary last agreement.The signifier began connected March 23, little than a period aft US and Israeli strikes connected Iran began connected February 28. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump announced "major points of agreement, I would say, astir each points of agreement." Iran denied immoderate negotiations were taking place.Within days, Trump's predictions grew much emphatic. On March 25, helium said Iran wanted to "make a woody truthful badly." On March 26, helium claimed Iran was "begging to marque a deal" .
On March 30, helium posted connected Truth Social that "great advancement has been made," but warned if a woody did not hap shortly, the US would "blow up and wholly obliterate each of their Electric Generating Plants".
A ceasefire that wasn't a deal
On April 7, Trump announced a ceasefire, saying the 2 sides were "very acold along" but needed 2 weeks for "the Agreement to beryllium finalized and consummated". No last statement followed.But Trump kept predicting. On April 15, helium told Fox Business: "I presumption it arsenic precise adjacent to over."
On April 16, helium told reporters: "It's looking precise bully that we're gonna marque a woody with Iran." On April 17, crossed 3 abstracted appearances, helium said Iran had "agreed to everything" and predicted a woody "in the adjacent time oregon two".By April 30, Iran was inactive "dying to marque a deal" according to Trump. On May 7, helium told reporters astatine the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool that a woody "might not happen, but it could hap immoderate day".
'We're successful the last throes'
A Fox News main governmental expert suggested Trump whitethorn beryllium sending antithetic messages to antithetic audiences — trying to calm petroleum markets portion maintaining a pugnacious stance toward Tehran.On June 11, Trump announced helium had cancelled planned strikes against Iran and claimed a "great settlement" had been reached. He told reporters successful the Oval Office that a signing could instrumentality spot "over the play successful Europe" . Vice President JD Vance would correspond the US, Trump said.But Iran's overseas ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said reports of an statement were "speculative" and "nothing has been finalised" . He said the US had made "excessive demands" and added "new requests".Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has been mediating betwixt the 2 sides, posted connected societal media that the "final, agreed-upon substance of the bid deal" has been reached, adding helium is moving intimately with some sides to finalize adjacent steps.As of Friday, nary woody has been signed. Trump's latest claim, that an statement could travel "over the play oregon Monday", would people his 38th oregon 39th prediction if it besides fails to materialise.
Insider trading suspicions
A BBC study shows however a accordant signifier of suspicious trading has accompanied Trump's Iran warfare announcements, with monolithic bets placed successful fiscal markets minutes earlier his market-moving statements became public.On March 9, traders placed immense bets connected falling lipid prices 47 minutes earlier Trump told CBS the warfare was "very complete."
When the quality broke, lipid plunged 25%. Those traders made millions.On March 23, $1.5 cardinal successful S&P futures and $192 cardinal successful lipid futures were traded 14 minutes earlier Trump posted connected Truth Social astir a "total resolution" with Iran. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy called it "bigger than immoderate futures purchases made astatine the time."On June 11, $920 cardinal successful crude lipid shorts were placed 70 minutes earlier an Axios study connected a imaginable US-Iran deal.
When lipid prices fell 12%, those shorts gained $125 million.On prediction markets similar Polymarket, six caller accounts won $1.2 cardinal betting connected US strikes against Iran precisely connected February 28 — the time they happened. Another idiosyncratic won $570,000 betting connected Nicolas Maduro's ouster hours earlier US peculiar forces seized him.Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman called it "treason successful the futures market." Democratic lawmakers person demanded investigations, but the CFTC has not confirmed immoderate probes. A fiscal regularisation adept said enforcement is difficult: adjacent with wide evidence, "there is simply a beardown accidental that nary 1 volition beryllium prosecuted."
